Meet The Experts: Rene Petersson shares his insight, sources and favourite betting memories

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IN a brand new series at WLB, we're getting inside the minds of some of the betting industry's smartest minds by asking the experts to reveal their  favourite resources, valuable insight and biggest wins in the game, with Rene Petersson (@Bet_On_Value) up next.

When did you first start betting? Can you remember your first bet?

I first started betting in the mid 1990s, around the age of 10. Back then there were no age restrictions at the brick and mortar bookmakers. My friends and I were placing 3+ folds on the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga and Danish Superliga.

I can't remember my first bet but it was probably a £1 10-fold with all the biggest favourites that weekend.

What sports or leagues do you focus and bet on?

Mainly football but I am not picky when it comes to leagues. I can and will have a bet on anything, as long as I'm confident I've got information which is not included in the current price.

Secondary sports I follow are basketball, tennis and ice hockey.

What sites or sources do you use to follow them? 

 A lot. It's difficult to pinpoint since I generally browse around, not necessarily to find a bet but instead looking for information that could potentially be valuable when selecting bets or highlighting certain matches.

Local papers are a gold mine for info that isn't always widely available. Twitter too, and generally keeping an eye on the matches to see if anything happens that could effect the future performances of the teams participating.

Amongst the biggest sites I frequently visit are: Soccerway, Understat, Experimental361 and Total Corner.

What are your favourite websites for research?

Hmm… Probably the four I've just mentioned:

What stats do you consider the most important?

Underlying performance stats. They paint a more accurate picture of the teams performances compared to basic stats – Expected Goals (xG), Expected Goals Against (xGA), Expected Points (xP), danger zone entries and defensive stats etc.

Are there any stats or trends you feel are irrelevant?

The vast majority of stats, except the underlying numbers.

To me, it's irrelevant how many matches a team has won, how well they are at home, or how often they go over/under a line. The league table too. Football is a low scoring sport and therefore more prone to variance. A team can win 1-0 but score via a penalty or own goal, despite having 11 players in their own half for 89 minutes of the match.

Stats in general don't necessarily show how a team performs and a lot of more valuable information is overlooked. If they are accurate indicators of a teams strengths they're already included in the price and therefore not helpful when finding value.

Instead of looking at say, ‘Team X saw six of their last seven home matches go Over 2.5 Goals', I rather turn it around to see if there's anything that contradicts that and favours the unders instead.

In general, basic stats tell us little and can be better to oppose when they're inaccurate.

What’s the biggest lesson you’ve learnt betting?

Probably to focus more on the numbers than the sports. The perfect combination is to know both in detail. Sports knowledge doesn't necessarily equal success in sports betting but if you know enough about both they can compliment each other.

Why is value important in betting?

Betting prices are probabilities. If you're more often than not betting prices that have a greater chance of occurring than the price you took, you will long term be profitable.
For example. If you're sitting with a 2.75 price on an event which closed at 2,00, you have a 50% chance of winning on something that had 36% probability when your bet was taken. Equals a bet value of 137.5%.

Have you any advice for punters looking to try and find an edge?

Educate yourself on betting theories and the maths behind them. Google various topics, listen to podcasts, follow people who share advice, and build your own experience. The latter is probably the most crucial part to betting but also the only part you cannot learn from others. Learn by doing and keep an open mind.

What’s your biggest betting win and how do you spend it?

I've had a couple of odds 150-200,00 parlays over the years which have boosted my betting bank, and partially financed a car and summer holidays.

Do you review your bets and track your winners/losers?

Yes, all is tracked in my record and with stats to give an overview of which sports, leagues, markets etc I perform best in.

How do you cope with losing bets?

In general, I don't react to a losing bet but if it's a losing run, I try to limit my number of bets and bet lower stakes than usual. If it's a bad beat (beating closing line and losing to a stoppage-time goal), I prefer to hit my couch cushions.

What’s the best thing about betting?

Studying ones hobby in details, the personal satisfaction when ones research and conclusions prove to be right and the second income it provides.

About Author

A bit like Charlie from Charlie's Angles, the ubiquitous WeLoveBetting Editorial Team are the all-seeing eyes of the site, making sure the web monkeys keep the site running.

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