Mistakes are part of the human experience. Bookmakers also make mistakes, sometimes miscalculating the odds on a given bet. For an attentive player, this is a chance for a bigger win. Such bets are called value bets. Learn more about them!
What is a Value Bet?
This term comes from combining two words: “value” and “bet”. In free translation, a value bet means a “valuable bet,” so a bet worth betting on.
From a practical point of view, this is an event in which the odds are, in the player's opinion, too high. That is, the probability calculated by the player is higher than the bookmaker's calculation. Finding such a type of bet is thus a chance for a bigger win for the player especially when you also consider special offers from bookies like freebet or deposit bonus. More on that you can find on websites like https://najlepsibukmacherzy.pl/bonusy-bukmacherskie/.
How to recognize them?
To better understand what a value bet is, it is worth using specific examples. Let's take a look at football and tennis matches.
Example I – Football
Looking for valuable bets requires delving into statistics and data about teams or players. An example of a value bet in football may be the match between Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund, played in the 21st round of the Bundesliga.
The odds for this match look like this:
According to legal bookmakers, Borussia was the clear favourite in the match. Looking only at the squad, one can agree with this. Yet, after a thorough analysis, it could be concluded that this may not be the case. Both teams are close to each other in the league table and have also earned a similar number of points in their last 10 matches.
Additionally, analysing direct matches from previous years, a draw could also be ruled out – it occurred once in 10 matches. We also take into account that the match is being played in Leverkusen, which gives Bayer's players an advantage. The hosts have won 45.22% of matches this season, while the guests 34.04%. After analysing this data, our estimated probability was:
- 45% Bayer's win,
- 15% draw,
- 40% Borussia's win.
A bet is considered valuable when P * K = more than 1, where:
- P – the percentage chance of winning the bet
- K – the bookmaker's odds
In our example, the calculations would look like this:
- 0.45 (45% chance of Bayer winning) * 3.71 (highest odds) = 1.67
The bet can be considered valuable because the result obtained is greater than 1. In the end, Bayer Leverkusen won 4-3.
Example II – tennis
In the semi-finals of the last Wimbledon, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer faced each other. The bookmaker priced the players' chances of winning as follows:
- Nadal – 56.8% (odds 1.76)
- Federer – 45.6% (odds 2.19)
As we can see, Nadal was the slight favourite of the bookmakers. It's not surprising, as before this match, he had won 24 out of the 39 matches played between them. But, if we take into account the venue of the match, the perspective may change. Federer is the true king of the London tournament – he has won it eight times. Also, the head-to-head record between Nadal and Federer at Wimbledon is in Roger's favour (2:1). After such an analysis, the chances of winning can be evaluated as follows:
- Nadal – 45%
- Federer – 55%
Is this a value bet? 0.55 * 2.19 = 1.21. Truly a valuable bet.
And the final result? R. Federer won 3:1.
Where to find valuable bets?
Looking for value bets is not an easy task. It requires a good knowledge of the given discipline, team, or player. It is also necessary to use a lot of statistics and data that will allow for a better assessment of the chances of a given event. Furthermore, it is also worth keeping up to date with social media and press reports about a given event. Often, the injury of one player or rumours of health problems can completely change the perspective on a given event.
Value bet – a chance for those who follow the data
When looking for valuable bets, it is important to reject your intuition in favour of following data and statistics. It is also worth analyzing the probability on your own before looking at the odds offered by the bookmaker. Their values may distort a common-sense view of the event.
In the search for value bets, browsing the offers of many legal bookmakers can also help. The odds they proposed may differ, which is an opportunity for those looking for valuable bets!