Premier League: Early season goal analysis

PREMIER LEAGUE fanatic Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) looks at the goals trends and statistics across the opening eight weeks of 2019/20 campaign.

Premier League | Early season goal analysis

The football season only feels like it started a few weeks ago and yet as I write this we’re already in mid-October with nearly a quarter of the Premier League campaign already done and dusted.

All 20 teams have played eight games each and with the action all set to kick-off again after the international break, now feels like a good time to take a statistical look at how the season has played out looking at three particular goals markets: Both Teams To Score, Over 1.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals.

These are the most popular football betting markets with punters in the betting shop I work in; Over 1.5 Goals multiples is the bet I've personally had most success with so far this term. From that I'll look at their respective fixtures this weekend and note any bets I believe are worthwhile, based on the trends.

Both Teams To Score

Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from a Both Teams To Score perspective:

Bournemouth = 7/8 (87.5%)
Liverpool = 6/8 (75%)
Arsenal = 6/8 (75%)
Chelsea = 6/8 (75%)
Tottenham = 5/8 (62.5%)
Wolves = 5/8 (62.5%)
Leicester = 5/8 (62.5%)
Southampton = 5/8 (62.5%)
Aston Villa = 5/8 (62.5%)
Norwich = 5/8 (62.5%)
Manchester City = 4/8 (50%)
Manchester United = 4/8 (50%)
West Ham = 4/8 (50%)
Burnley = 4/8 (50%)
Everton = 3/8 (37.5%)
Crystal Palace = 3/8 (37.5%)
Watford = 3/8 (37.5%)
Newcastle = 3/8 (37.5%)
Sheffield United = 3/8 (37.5%)
Brighton = 2/8 (25%)

Bournemouth have been the Premier League team to be on from a Both Teams To Score perspective with 7/8 overall and four from four at home, and that's why it's no surprise to see BTTS priced up around 2/5 for the Cherries contest with Norwich.

That is incredibly short for that market but Norwich have had five Both Teams To Score winners themselves; 2/5 isn't a price for a single bet but it's the most likely looking option in the Premier League BTTS markets, something to consider adding to a multiple, or possibly going down the Win and BTTS option – Bournemouth and BTTS is 13/8.

The biggest clash in the Premier League this weekend is Manchester United versus Liverpool and it's 4/6 that Both Teams To Score occurs. The BTTS stats for United aren’t very strong but Liverpool have had 75% of their league matches feature goals at both ends and it would be a massive shock if they didn’t score in this fixture.

So that leaves it to United to score. They will have to show pride and go for the win, they'll have seen that Liverpool's defence has given chances up against everybody this season so whilst I expect the visitors to win the game, I can see Man Utd notching and 4/6 isn't the worst price in the world.

The Bournemouth v Norwich and Man United v Liverpool BTTS double would pay around 11/8 if you combined those matches.

Generally speaking, the remaining Premier League fixtures look tough to be confident about from a Both Teams To Score perspective, perhaps Everton v West Ham will produce goals but that's quite short at 4/7.

Over 1.5 Goals

Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 1.5 Goals perspective:

Manchester City = 8/8 (100%)
Norwich = 8/8 (100%)
Chelsea = 8/8 (100%)
Liverpool = 7/8 (87.5%)
Tottenham = 7/8 (87.5%)
Wolves = 7/8 (87.5%)
West Ham = 7/8 (87.5%)
Bournemouth = 7/8 (87.5%)
Southampton = 7/8 (87.5%)
Burnley = 7/8 (87.5%)
Brighton = 7/8 (87.5%)
Manchester United = 6/8 (75%)
Arsenal = 6/8 (75%)
Aston Villa = 6/8 (75%)
Watford = 6/8 (75%)
Leicester = 6/8 (75%)
Crystal Palace = 5/8 (62.5%)
Everton = 5/8 (62.5%)
Sheffield United = 4/8 (50%)
Newcastle = 4/8 (50%)

Unsurprisingly Bournemouth against Norwich is the shortest price for Over 1.5 Goals in the Premier League at 1/8 with Norwich having all eight games produce two goals or more and Bournemouth following suit in all bar one of their eight encounters.

Wolves and Southampton have both seen seven of their eight respective outings feature Over 1.5 Goals and so the 4/11 available on that option for this fixture seems fair and well worth considering.

Leicester v Burnley is on offer at around 2/7 with the Foxes delivering profit in this market in six of their eight games and Burnley surpassing the one-goal line in all bar one of their matches.

Manchester United against Liverpool will have many thinking there will be goals and it's 1/4 to go Over 1.5. Liverpool matches have broken this barrier seven times, whilst United have done so on six occasions.

All four options highlighted are very short as single bets but combining them in multiples gives you a different way to attack a group of matches. The four-fold would pay around 6/4, a treble on the three Saturday matches would pay around even-money.

The joy of the Over 1.5 Goals market is that you don't have to worry about the result, all you need is two goals in the game and the statistics show most Premier League teams have excellent Over 1.5 Goals stats.

Over 2.5 Goals

Here is a breakdown of how all 20 Premier League teams have performed in terms of the matches from an Over 2.5 Goals perspective:

Liverpool = 7/8 (87.5%)
Manchester City = 7/8 (87.5%)
Tottenham = 7/8 (87.5%)
Bournemouth = 6/8 (75%)
Chelsea = 6/8 (75%)
Aston Villa = 5/8 (62.5%)
Leicester = 5/8 (62.5%)
Arsenal = 5/8 (62.5%)
Norwich = 5/8 (62.5%)
Southampton = 5/8 (62.5%)
Burnley = 5/8 (62.5%)
Watford = 4/8 (50%)
West Ham = 4/8 (50%)
Crystal Palace = 3/8 (37.5%)
Everton = 3/8 (37.5%)
Brighton = 3/8 (37.5%)
Newcastle = 3/8 (37.5%)
Sheffield United = 2/8 (25%)
Wolves = 2/8 (25%)
Manchester United 2/8 (25%)

Bournemouth v Norwich completes the hat-trick in being the shortest-priced option of the markets I've covered as it's only 2/5 on Over 2.5 Goals going in at the Vitality, unsurprising considering 75% of Bournemouth's matches have seen this selection collect, as well as five of Norwich’s eight encounters.

Leicester and Burnley have both had 62.5% of their league matches (5/8) go Over 2.5 Goals and so the bookmakers might be taking a chance offering 5/6 for a repeat; it could well be a bit shorter given those stats.

Aston Villa have seen 75% of their contests go Over 2.5 and they scored five alone in their last outing, whilst their match at Arsenal had five goals, and their match at Tottenham featured four. Goals aren't a problem for Villa and they'll face a Brighton side who should be full of confidence after stuffing Spurs 3-0; they'll know Villa give chances to opponents, and overall the 4/5 available on Over 2.5 Goals looks fair.

Those looking towards the Manchester United v Liverpool clash for a goals bet can get 8/11 on Over 2.5. In terms of Over 2.5 stats, United and Liverpool are at opposite ends of the table with only two of the Red Devils’ eight producing three or more goals, whilst the Merseysiders have beaten the line seven times already.

This bet landing might rely on Man Utd scoring as I expect Liverpool to go to Old Trafford and net a few themselves; that 8/11 on Over 2.5 Goals will tempt plenty and could well be worth risking. For those that like multiples, combining the four games I've highlighted would pay around 7/1.