GERMANY face Hungary in Munich on Wednesday night. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Germany vs Hungary | Wednesday 23rd June 2021, 20:00 | BBC
Germany bounced back from a disappointing defeat against France by thumping defending European Champions Portugal 4-2. Atalanta’s Robin Gosens starred as Die Mannschaft ran riot in Munich, and they’ll have the chance to put in a repeat showing against Hungary.
That win propelled them into second and pole position to qualify, given they face a Hungary side ranked 37th in the world by FIFA, while France take on Portugal.
However, Joachim Low’s side hasn’t had the easiest of build-ups with a few players forced to miss out on training. On Monday, Mats Hummels, Thomas Müller, Ilkay Gündogan and Lukas Klostermann all sat out, leaving question marks over their involvement in this one.
Hungary’s 1-1 draw with France was a bit of a smash-and-grab after taking the lead just before half-time. The world champions got a deserved equaliser in the second half, and they should have left with all three.
That point gives Marco Rossi’s side hope of making the next round, but it’s an uphill task. They’ve lost their last two against Low’s Germany, while they’re winless in their last five European Championship matches (D3-L2).
There are plenty of permutations to settle the knockout rounds. A positive result for Germany should be good enough to see them through in the top two spots to face either the best third-place team from Groups A/B/C or the winners of Group D.
The betting angles
Hungary are averaging 15 tackles per game so far and are likely to face sustained pressure from the Germans. It was relentless from Low’s men against Portugal, and with a place in the knockout round up for grabs, I’m expecting another strong German performance.
That could see Hungary players making quite a few tackles once more and one man who has consistently done that so far is Endre Botka.
He’s made six tackles in the two games, three in each v France and Portugal. If you look back to the Nations League campaign, he made four in their home draw with Serbia.
Also, in his only World Cup qualifying appearance in March, he made two against minnows San Marino. So, in a game where he’s going to get through a lot of work, the 3+ line looks the way to go.
Given those tackle numbers and what’s at stake, we could see a few more cards flourished – that was the case in the closing Group A games on Sunday. It’s no surprise to see Attila Fiola (11/5 Sky Bet) topping the list with multiple firms. He made four fouls v France without a card and could have plenty of work to do.
Next to him, on the left side of the central midfield, is 22-year-old András Schäfer. He caught my eye against France for the work he got through, while also committing a couple of fouls.
I backed him in-play after his first and thought Michael Oliver was quite lenient throughout. He’s 5/1 for a card in this one and despite him only likely to play 70-75 mins, I feel that’s a big price for someone who’ll have to do a lot of backtracking to try and disrupt the sustained German attacks.
Russian referee Sergei Karasev has the cards, and he averages 5.11 per game. His only Euros game so far saw him show two to Switzerland in their defeat against Italy, so the underdogs could find a few players having their names taken here.
The third and final angle is a stats-based punt and comes out at a shade above EVS.
Germany haven’t been afraid to shoot on sight, recording 13 & 10 shots in their games, while Hungary have faced 10 & 16. So, with the way the Germans attack, we could see plenty of Hungarian goal kicks.
So far, Germany’s opponents have taken seven & 12 goal kicks, while Hungary have hit double figures in both games – 10 & 13 – and I’d expect them to hit those sorts of numbers here with Germany on the hunt for top spot. Therefore, the first part of this double is over 9.5 Hungary goal kicks.
Double it up by going low on Germany corners. They’ve only had eight in their two games (3 & 5), while Hungary have only conceded nine (3 & 6), so add under 9 Germany corners to take the 8/13 goal kicks price up to 21/20.
With the German wing-backs getting forward to create overloads and force sustained pressure, then those look two solid picks from the data already collected.