World Football: Three strong home sides to support on Sunday


WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) looks to continue his fabulous form with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Sunday.

Brescia v Spezia | Sunday 27th January 2019, 17:00

The Italian Serie B takes an interest on both days for us this weekend and whilst there is a decent play on the Saturday card, we believe there is a little gem within the Sunday fixtures as well.

That is because Brescia, who are battling for promotion, square-off against Spezia, another side with promotion aspirations, sitting just inside the play-off spots. This top-eight encounter promises to be an intriguing contest.

If we’re looking at the form guide then Brescia sit proudly at the top of that respective column. If the league table was based on the last five, 10 or 15 games, then they would actually be ahead of leaders Palermo at the top of the standings.

Eugenio Corini is looking to guide the club back into Serie A after they were relegated from that league back in 2011. They’ve mostly experienced bottom-half finishes since then, but there are real hopes that this could be their year.

Spezia finished 12th in the second tier last season after winning promotion into this level after a lengthy absence. They aren’t a side that were necessarily expected to challenge near the top. They’re in the situated where one win could see them rise a few places and a defeat could see them drop a few spots and overtaken by some rivals. This is a tight league and little between them all.

Brescia are the highest-scorers in the league but only four other sides in the league have conceded fewer than Spezia. Brescia aren’t necessarily built on clean sheets, despite keeping one last time out. Attack is very much their best form of defence. They’ve actually scored in every game they’ve played this season.

Brescia have the joint-best home record in the league and they’re the team we have to be on side with this weekend. Especially as we can get odds-against quotes of 10/9 (188Bet) on them to win.

The fact that they’re so many draws in this league is slightly off-putting, and that is why the price it is. However, Brescia are in top form and at the price you cannot turn them down.

Toluca v Tigres | Sunday 27th January 2019, 18:00

Liga MX is back in swing for the Clausura in the second half of the campaign and Toluca versus Tigres is a particular attractive contest on the weekend fixture list. Only three points separated the two in the Apertura opening half of the campaign, so it is likely to be a close match on Sunday. However, we do believe there is one team to side with on this occasion.

Tigres are viewed as the biggest team in the Mexican league. They are the side that are very much expected to challenge for honours year-by-year. They’ve had good year in recent times but were knocked out at the quarter-final stage in the Apertura, which was well below-par for a side of their quality. Toluca would be knocked out at the same stage.

There has only been three games in the Clausura, with Toluca winning two of three, whilst Tigres have a 33.33% ratio of wins, draws and defeats. Therefore, we do need to strongly consider form from the first half of the season as well. In that opening half, Toluca have the joint-third strongest home form, whilst only three sides scored more goals than they did, one of those being Tigres.

The Estadio Nemesio Díez has been a venue that Tigres have not necessarily had the most joy from in recent times. In fact, they’ve only one of three of their last 19 visits. The last being in 2015.

You just have to look at the run of form from Toluca home games in recent memory to see many W’s. Tigres’ away record is certainly not bad, it is quite good if anything. However, they are a side that tend to slip on the road when facing one of the better teams. They generally aren’t consistent enough to be super confident of their chances of emerging with three points on Sunday, despite retaining the obvious quality to do so.

Toluca to win is priced at 5/4 (888) and considering it is a ground that Tigres rarely have much joy from, we believe it is worth a play.

Kortrijk v Gent | Sunday 27th January 2019, 19:00

The Belgian First Division A is another league where we’ll have two focuses on across the weekend and on Sunday we like the look of what Kortrijk versus Gent could bring. It is 10th versus 6th and only six points has separated the two after 22 games of competitive action so far. Only a few spots differenced the two last season as well, so these are two teams which are very much in the same quality bracket.

Since November, Kortrijk are managed by Yves Vanderhaeghe. He is in his second spell at the helm and is the former manager of Gent, having took charge in the 2017/18 campaign. He’ll be eager to get one over his former employers on Sunday and they have a decent shot of doing so.

Certainly better than the odds suggest. Looking at the 1×2 line, you can actually get 9/4 on a Kortrijk victory, which is big considering they’re at home. Gent are around the 11/10 mark, which is mostly because of their recent form.

Yes, they have won five of their last seven in all competitions, but they have had a lot of home matches of late. That’s certainly where their better results come from. On the road, they’ve won one of the last six in both league and cup.

Kortrijk, who are owned by Vincent Tan, on the flip side have had quite a few games away of late, their form is therefore not so strong. However, if we focus on their recent games at the Guldensporenstadion, then they’re looking a bit stronger. They’ve lost just once in their last seven in all competitions on home soil, winning three of the last four, the other being a draw to second in the table Club Brugge.

Gent have also won only twice in their last 10 visits to this stadium. Kortrijk do actually have the joint-worst home record in the division, but that has started to pick up of late. They’ve earned one more point at home than Gent has achieved away. There really is not that much between these two teams!

To be honest, we just feel as though Kortrijk are a little bit overpriced this weekend. So much so, we like Kortrijk Double Chance at 4/5 (Bet365). The issues with Gent is that they are bigger one extreme or the other, which is proved by the fact that in their 22 league games, they’ve only drew four of those. They’re away record of late inspires little confidence, and Kortrijk are certainly on the up at least.

Best Bets

Brescia v Spezia – Brescia to win (10/9 188Bet)

Toluca v Tigres – Toluca to win (5/4 888)

Kortrijk v Gent – Kortrijk double chance (4/5 Bet365)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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