World Football: Setubal considered good things on Saturday


WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.

Sydney v Perth Glory | Saturday 14th March 2020, 06:00 | BT Sport

Sydney against Perth Glory is always a fixture that catches the eye in this part of the world, and we’re entering the final straight of the A-League regulation season. There are eight league games remaining for Sydney, whilst Perth Glory have seven more clashes remaining. Sydney have all but wrapped up first place, whilst The Glory have hit bad run at a bad time.

It has been utter dominance from practically start to finish for Sydney this season. Of their 18 A-League matches this season, they’ve won 15 of them. Ironically, both two defeats came to the same opponent in the form of city rivals Western Sydney Wanderers, but they bounced back well to their latest loss to them when hammering Melbourne Victory 4-1 away last time out.

Perth Glory have won only one of their last seven in all competitions, and it could be that they’re struggling to combine league form with the AFC Champions League. Sydney are in the same boat however, and are seemingly fairer more competently. Three defeats for four for Tony Popovic’s men has seen their what was a fairly comfortable play-off spot now look a little precarious. It is now just a three point gap inside these spots, so every point is vital.

Although top spot is pretty much sealed already, Sydney aren’t really letting their foot off the gas. Having lost their last home game to a close rival they’ll be eagerly awaiting this game to please their home support once again. They’ve won eight of nine at home, but the last four wins by a one-goal margin suggests they’ll have to work hard for it.

Perth themselves went on a three game away winning streak in December/January, but they’ve now gone four without winning on the road, failing to score in two of those. Only Sydney actually has more away points than The Glory in A-League action this season, so this is anything but a home banker.

Still, this is a head-to-head than Perth don’t fare so well in. They’ve not won away in Sydney since February 2016, when Sydney weren’t the type of force as they are today. Sydney has won the last six H2H at home, outscoring Perth 20-1.

Sydney at an odds-against price of 11/10 (BoyleSports) is honestly the stuff of dreams and it most definitely will not last for much longer. I’d advise getting on ASAP as the price will only go down.

Maritimo v Setubal | Saturday 14th March 2020, 15:30

Over to Portugal on Saturday afternoon and Maritimo versus Setubal may not necessarily be a game which jumps off the page. Still, this bottom half encounter in the top flight could potential promises so much in the form of profit! Whilst it is indeed 15th against 12th in this 18-team division, both have sizeable gaps to the bottom two, so both really should be safe.

Recent form from the pair means it is a good job both already have a gap as insurance as neither are in great shape. That especially applies to Maritimo, who are enduring a three-match losing streak. It is only one win in nine, and losing five of their latest seven further highlights the issues they have. Goals are especially hard to come by, failing to score in five of their last nine.

Setubal did win back-to-back clashes at the end of January, but since the start of February they are winless in six. Porto, Benfica and Braga were all strong opponents within this run however, so we’ll let them off to a degree. As we all know, it is essentially Benfica, Porto, Braga, Sporting and then the rest of the league, separated into two. Drawing at home to Benfica last time out however means spirited shouldn’t be desperately low.

It is noticeable that Setubal have been quite solid away from home of late. We’ve touched upon them winning consecutive away fixtures not so long ago, and losing just two of the previous seven away suggests they are indeed tough to beat; both losses coming to Braga and a decent outfit in Famalicao, who are seventh.

On the flip side, home wins for Maritimo are proving difficult to come by. Just winning three of their last nine in all competitions is nothing to shout home about. Porto and Braga were including in that run, whilst they do love a home draw, but they just aren’t the most reliable.

Maritimo are favourites to win this game purely on home advantage alone. Winning only five of 24 league encounters offers little hope for optimistic, especially as Setubal has at least avoiding defeat in 16 of their 24. Setubal have the joint-highest amount of draws in the league, so they now how to negotiate potentially tricky away battles such as this.

Setubal are unbeaten in the last three H2H renewals, winning two. Those three combined only produced a total of two goals. Goals don’t really follow these two this season. Only 11 of 48 of their league matches combined contained a minimum of four goals, and only three of the last 12 H2H matches have done, too.

Setubal are the value here so we have to get them on side. Setubal Double Chance and Under 4 Goals at 1/1 (Bet365) is a much better play than hoping Maritimo trying to outperform how they’ve been playing for a while. Even so, a draw wouldn’t be so bad for either side here.

Best Bets

Sydney v Perth Glory – Sydney to win (11/10 BoyleSports)

Maritimo v Setubal – Setubal Double Chance and Under 4 Goals (1/1 Bet365)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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