World Football: Poor travellers opposed in Mexico on Saturday


WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.

Braunschweig v Kaiserslautern | Saturday 15th February 2020, 13:00

Whilst there is a sizeable gap between Braunschweig and Kaiserslautern in the third-tier of German football, there is only a four-point difference. With 15 games remaining, it could be argued that both need points to challenge towards the top and to make sure they don’t get dragged nearer the bottom.

Both have returned from the winter break in poor fashion in terms of results. Braunschweig are winless in three, but drew the last two, whilst Kaiserslautern are winless in four, including a loss in the cup to Bundesliga outfit Dusseldorf.

It comes as something of a surprise to see Braunschweig deemed as the outsiders to win this game, despite having home advantage, which is so often a swinging factor in terms of determining the betting price. That is even more so the case between two fairly evenly matched teams such as this.

The fact of the matter is that both of these teams are quite inconsistent. The hosts have a 9-8-6 record, and compared to the 8-7-8 of the away side it does suggest that anything really could happen this weekend!

Braunschweig are actually winless in six if we count before the winter break kicked in, whilst Kaiserslautern were in blistering form prior to this, so the break definitely came at a bad time for them and they’ve been unable to regain that momentum.

Whilst Kaiserslautern do have five away league wins to their name this season, three of those came to teams below them in the table. In their five trips to the current top-seven, they’ve drew one and lost four. Remember that Braunschweig is very much sandwiched into that current category at the moment.

On the flip side, Braunschweig’s home defeats have came to teams currently positioned 1st, 2nd, 6th and 12th, so they generally struggle against the stronger outfits. They’re also unbeaten overall when facing teams 13th and below (W6, D4), and that includes winning 3-0 in Kaiserslautern earlier this season.

The value is on the home team here, but they are inconsistent so this does look more bet-builder material. We will combine Braunschweig Double Chance alongside Both Teams To Score, which is a handy 11/8 (Bet365) price.

Only in 10 of 46 games combined have these two kept a clean sheet, and only failed to score in nine combined. Furthermore, 17/23 for Kaiserslautern and 15/23 for Braunschweig has seen both teams score.

Pachuca v Puebla | Saturday 15th February 2020, 23:00

When you find a really strong home team and a rather poor away team then that is always one easy angle to approach any game. This is very much one of those as Pachuca takes on Puebla in the Mexican top flight. We are only five matches into the Clausura portion of the campaign, and both have rather disappointing W1-D1-L2 records respectively.

The Mexican league is split into two parts, the first of which is the Apertura, and the good thing about betting during the second part is that there are always angles to find from the first set of matches. Pachuca and Puebla finished 9th and 13th respectively first time around, with only a two point difference, and it meant they finished just outside the play-off spots.

That may suggest that there is very little between these two teams, and that is probably true, so it is therefore right to say that any slight advantage that can be gained here could flip the match in the other direction. This is why home advantage I do feel is quite key on this occasion, and Pachuca do look to be the team to side with.

History does tend to be on their side as well, as Puebla has not enjoyed their trips to Hidalgo over the years. They’ve won on just one of their last ten visits in all competitions inside 90-minutes, and lost four of the most recent five. Of course, statistics that are more recent are more convincing, and Pachuca are six games unbeaten at home, too. That includes a win over Tigres, and so they’re unbeaten at home since October.

Puebla have won just twice away from home since last April, although one of those did come last month when defeating Atlas 1-0, in what was your bog-standard smash and grab type of success. I just don’t think they’re likely to pull off that kind of achievement so soon after doing it quite recently. They are not consistent, especially on the road, and Pachuca are clearly different to defeat in front of their supporters.

The support for a home win is strong, but the public has jumped on board with that too and the odds on a straight win is not so appealing. Additional value needs to be located to make it a more appealing play, especially as we’re fairly certain a home win is quite safe. In situations like this, I do like to throw in Over 1.5 Goals for extra value, and so all we’re hoping is Pachuca to win any score besides 1-0.

Therefore, Pachuca to Win and Over 1.5 Goals will be the play at 17/20 (Betway), which does whet the appetite much more. Only twice since April has a Pachuca home match not contained at least two goals, and it has also occurred in six of Puebla’s last eight away defeats.

Best Bets

Braunschweig v Kaiserslautern – Braunschweig Double Chance & Both Teams To Score (11/8 Bet365)

Pachuca v Puebla – Pachuca to Win and Over 1.5 Goals (17/20 Betway)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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