World Football: Goals to flow in Sunday’s Danish duel


WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Sunday.

Hammarby v Helsingborg | Sunday 11th August 2019, 16:30

For anyone who hasn’t watched a Hammarby game before, then I would really suggest you do so. That is if goals are you kind of thing!

They’ve certainly hit a gold run at the moment having scored a total of 22 goals in their last five matches. They’ve conceded nine in that period too, and the fact half of those games would have seen an Over 6.5 Goals bet pay-out is perhaps all you need to know. They’re only six-points behind league leaders Djurgarden, so maintaining this run of form is the key to closing that hap.

Helsingborg won promotion back into this league and are very much back where they belong. However, their Allsvenskan league title in 2011 certainly seems a long time ago now as the reality is that avoiding relegation would probably resemble a good campaign for them.

Eighteen games into the season Helsingborg find themselves in 12th spot in this 16-team league, having only won four matches all season. They’re one of the lowest scorers in the division with 17, which is some way behind the 42 Hammarby has netted.

It would be easy to just jump upon a Hammarby victory here, but remember that they are shipping some goals too. They’ve kept no clean sheets in their last eight, but they’ve been successfully outscoring teams. The problem for Helsingborg is that could very easily happen again, as they’ve only scored six on the road all season, and Hammarby have scored six on two occasions in recent matches. Slim odds on a home victory however aren’t of great appeal.

Something however which attracts my attention a lot of the time when looking for a bet to back a free-scoring side in the score in both halves market. Hammarby has netted inside each 45-minute segment in nine matches this season, which is half of their matches and the most in the league. The hosts aren’t ones to sit back too often, regardless of the score.

To gets odds of 21/20 (Royal Panda) on Hammarby scoring in both halves is too good to turn down. They defeated Helsingborg 5-1 the last time these two met at the Tele2 Arena, and supporters of Bajen have not been disappointed in recent times and goals are on the menu this weekend assuming recent form is held up.

Hobro v Brondby | Sunday 11th August 2019, 17:00

Whilst I am writing this section prior to Brondby featuring in the Europa League versus Braga on Thursday, I don’t believe this’ll have too much effect in terms of my selection.

We’re only four games into the Danish Superliga season but already we’re starting to see a familiar tale. Copenhagen and Midtjylland sit joint-top of the standings with four wins from four, and then there is a five-point gap to Brondby in third position.

That gap is likely to get bigger and bigger as the weeks go by as Brondby just aren’t capable of putting a consistent run of results together. That’s highlighted by the fact they’ve won two, drew one and lost one of their opening four, and that loss was at home to Horsens, which is such a poor result.

Hobro are actually unbeaten in their first four, although three of those have ended a stalemate. This means they head into this weekend as one of only three unbeaten sides in the league, the other two being the big-two in Copenhagen and Midtjylland.

Hobro actually finished bottom of the table last season, and in the end needed to win a promotion/relegation play-off to maintain their status in the Danish top flight. They’ll therefore be pretty happy at being hard to beat in the early weeks of the season, even if they’ve not had the toughest of fixtures.

As you’d expect, this isn’t a game to be going too strong on in terms of the 1×2 market. Brondby are incredibly inconsistent and very, very unreliable. On their day, they could beat any side in this league, but days of regularly challenging for the title appear a long way off once again. On paper, they should be winning this at a canter, but clearly they’ve got a distraction in the form of the Europa League ties with Braga.

Very poor home form cost Brondby last season as only eventual champions Copenhagen claimed more points than they did on the road. That’s ultimately why you can get odds-on quotes on them winning on Sunday, but I really wouldn’t take odds-on at all. The goals angle has to be the way to go.

There is an obvious selection which jumps off the plate and that’s very much the one we’re going to run with. Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals is available at 20/21 (Bet365) and it’s the sort of bet which has been paying out a lot for these two sides.

BTTS has paid out in each of Hobro’s matches, and three of Brondby’s four in the league. Brondby’s games has all beat the 2.5 line, too, averaging a total of 3.80 goals. Hobro’s aren’t too far off at 3.30 either, but last season’s numbers tell a bigger story.

Games involving Brondby for a while now has simply contained plenty of goals. 67% of their away league games last season beat the 2.50 line, whilst BTTS paid out 72% away, too, and remember they had a strong away record in terms of results.

Best Bets

Hammarby v Helsingborg – Hammarby to score in both halves (21/20 Royal Panda)

Hobro v Brondby – Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals (20/21 Bet365)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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