World Football: Free-scoring Glens to style out on Saturday


WORLD football fanatic James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) continues his quest for global value with a selection of hand-picked best bets from across the planet on Saturday.

Perth Glory v Adelaide United | Saturday 11th January 2020, 08:30 | BT Sport

Whilst we don’t necessarily have a full weekend card of games across the footballing calendar across the globe, there is still plenty of opportunity for us to increase our bankroll with the remainder of 2020 still to come. The first of what will be two visits to the Australian A-League comes bright and early on Saturday morning when Perth Glory take on Adelaide United.

Perth Glory have had something of an extended break going into this one as they haven’t actually played since 31st December. That was a more than solid 3-0 away win at Central Coast Mariners, so coach Tony Popovic will be hoping they won’t have gone stale since then. However, that game was played ten games after they beat Newcastle Jets 6-2, proving that they can cope with the extra preparation time.

There was no doubt the The Glory suffered something of a hangover from last season into the early part of this current campaign. Losing the Grand Final in front of their own supporters to Sydney was a bitter pill to swallow, and as such they won just one of their opening seven. However, they’ve more than bounced back having won their previous four in succession, with those scores reading 3-0, 2-0, 6-2 and 3-0.

Adelaide, on the other hand, have pretty much gone in the opposition direction. Whilst they suffered back-to-back league losses to start their season, they would then win six of their next seven in all competitions, including when lifting the FFA Cup in late October. It is four defeats in their previous five however, although all four losses was by a one-goal margin, proving that they are at least in all these games.

The fact of the matter is that whilst Adelaide are good for a goal, they ship them too! They’re actually the only team in the league to have scored in every game this season, but they’ve kept just the one clean sheet in reply. It does mean all bar one of their league contests has seen both teams to score pay out, so goals are either end looks more than likely on that basis alone.

We clearly can’t deny that Perth Glory are the team to have on side going into this one. Adelaide can score as many goals as they like, but a successful team needs a strong defence, and they don’t have that. Perth have the joint-tightest defence in the division, with only Melbourne Victory managing more clean sheets in A-League action.

We will take a bit of a chance in this one as opposed to going for a Perth Glory win or any combination involving BTTS, purely because they’re so solid defensively. We like the look of Perth Glory Half Time/ Full Time, which is priced at a more than generous 2/1 (Coral).

The reason being is that they’ve been ahead at the break in all five of their league wins this season, and even last season this was the case the majority of the time. Adelaide has also conceded in the first time for five away games running, proving that they don’t adjust quickly to new surroundings. 2/1 is a great price.

Glentoran v Warrenpoint | Saturday 11th January 2020, 15:00

For the first time on our World Football column, we’re going to delve into the top-flight of football in Northern Ireland this weekend. We’re quite a way through the season in the Northern Irish Premiership, with teams playing roughly 23 or 24 games. It may only be a 12-team division by we have a five-way tussle at the top, with all sides separated by only four points.

One of those five in question is Glentoran, who find themselves in fourth on 47 points, some three points behind top of the table Cliftonville. At the other end of the scale however we have poor old Warrenpoint, who sit at the bottom with only 13-points, although they are only bottom below Institute on goal difference.

Warrenpoint have scored the fewest with 19 and conceded the most with 69, but it is not all bad though! They have claimed four points across their last two away matches, including an important victory at Institute, and a creditable draw at mid-table Glenavon.

It won’t come as any surprise to see Glentoran as a rather short price to claim maximum points on Saturday afternoon. Only Linfield has claimed more home points than they’ve done, whilst only Crusaders and Coleraine have scored more goals overall in the current league campaign. Only Linfield have more goals at home, whilst only Cliftonville and Linfield have conceded less at home. They’re pretty good at home!

Glentoran are also unbeaten in league action since October 4th, and they’ve since been away to Warrenpoint in that time and left comfortable 4-0 winners. Therefore, they’ve unbeaten in 13, and have won each of their last four ‘to nil’. Warrenpoint did at least claim a morale-boosting midweek cup victory, but that was a rare success for them in what has been a tough campaign thus far.

Warrenpoint had lost every single away league game this season prior to their last two, and they’ve conceded an average of 3.08 goals on the road, too. You only have to rattle off some of their away results this season to showcase some of their struggles, and 7-0, 6-0 and three 4-0’s makes for rather grim reading.

The reality is that they tend to crumble away when conceding, as at home they’ve lost plenty too, but not to the same level of severity.

Glentoran are often among the goals as well, and their last five home league wins read 3-1, 3-1, 6-1, 3-0 and 2-0, and that 3-0 was against reigning champions Linfield. Taking this into account and how leaky Warrenpoint are, I’m pleasantly surprised to see we can get a price of 19/20 (Unibet) on Glentoran Over 2.5 Goals.

The only way this doesn’t really pay-out is if Warrenpoint produce a defensive masterclass or the keeper plays a blinder, but they’re shipping goals far too regularly, especially away, to believe that’ll happen out of the blue.

Best Bets

Perth Glory v Adelaide United – Perth Glory HT/FT (2/1 Coral)

Glentoran v Warrenpoint – Glentoran to score Over 2.5 Goals (19/20 Unibet)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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