MVV Maastricht v Roda JC | Sunday 18th November 2018, 11:15
The Eerste Divisie is always a league commonly associated with goals – only four teams this season can say their league matches has mostly ended below the 2.5 line. There is another attractive card for this weekend and the division most certainly doesn’t shut down for the international break.
Maastricht versus Roda is the match which has taken our attention. Twente against Go Ahead Eagles is probably the match of the weekend, but this particular contest has taken our eye and we believe there is some value to be had. The statistics do back-up our selection too.
Let us set the scene, as we always do.
Maastricht, known as MVV for short, sit 14th in this 20-team league. Clearly there are just about below mid-table and they are winless in their last four as well. However, they’re only four points behind the last play-off position, so there is still life in their season yet.
There is of course no relegation out of this league, so there isn’t too much pressure on MVV in that regard, but they’ll always want to better themselves. They reached the play-off last season, finishing in 10th position – Almere City would knock them out over two legs in the first stage. The highlight of their campaign so far is certainly the away victory in Twente, but this has been a rare shining light.
Roda suffered relegation out of the Eredivisie after losing to Almere City over two legs – this was only the second time in their history have they suffered relegation. Prior to dropping out of the top-flight for the first time in 2014, they had spent 41 years in the premier of Dutch football.
Roda have been a yo-yo club of late however, and have set their eyes on regaining their Eredivisie spot first and foremost. They started the campaign with two wins and two defeats, but they’ve been starting to find a little more consistency. They’re unbeaten in their last five in all competitions, four being in the league, including two league victories against Helmond and Jong Utrecht, the current bottom two in the division. They’re in the play-offs now, but more points are needed to challenge even closer to the top.
Maastricht against Roda this weekend places Roda as the slight favourites. The market has priced this about right – Roda are the stronger team, they have the form edge and more often than not they’d probably win this fixture. However, MMV are of course at home, so that fact alone will even up this contest. After all, there is only five-points separating these two in the table, so focusing on the 1×2 market this weekend is best swerved.
Goals is the angle we’ll go on. Both of these two sides are actually lower down the table when it comes to goals – half of the league has witnessed an average of below 3.00 goals in their matches, and Maastricht and Roda are two of those. 4/6 of MMV’s home games and 4/7 of Roda’s away have beat the 2.5 line however, so anything could happen this weekend on that front.
There is a specific market however we can target to locate a little value. What tends to be common for these two sides is that the first half of their matches is much, much tighter than in the second period.
Focusing on MMV firstly, 31% of their gaols scored come in the first half, whilst only 39% of their goals conceded occur in the first. Just in case maths isn’t your strong point, that means they score 69% and concede 61% of their goals in the second half.
It is similar for Roda too. They score 33% and concede 24% in the first half. Therefore, their stats read 67% goals for and 76% goals against in the second 45.
These numbers are even bigger for their home and away games respective. MMV at home it reads 40% and 42% scored and conceded in first 45, and then 60% and 58% scored and conceded in the second. For Roda away, it’s 12% and 22% scored and conceded before half time, and then 88% and 78% scored and conceded later on. I appreciate that is a lot of numbers thrown at you, but they are significant and difficult to ignore.
We can gets 1/1 (Betway) on the Second-Half to be the Highest Scoring Half on Sunday. The stats suggest this is more than likely.
Roskilde v Helsingor | Sunday 18th November 2018, 12:45
A bottom of the table encounter is present this weekend in the Danish second-tier as Roskilde welcome Helsingor.
Only Hvidovre separates these two in the standings, with Roskilde jumping up a few places thanks to a three-game winning streak. Helsingor, who were only just relegated from the Danish Superliga last season, face the prospect of back-to-back relegations, having won only 3/17 so far. This is a huge game on Sunday.
One thing that Roskilde has in their favour right now is momentum. Prior to their last three, it was just one victory from 14 played in the league and the mood around the club would have been exceptionally low. They did lead 2-0 at half time away to Thisted FC recently, before a red card led to a collapse, then losing 3-2. Morale was low, which then makes them winning the next three most impressive.
Perhaps what is even more impressive is the nature of those victories, and also the opposition it has come against. A 3-1 home win to Viborg, who currently sit top of the table, was just the start of their revival. It was then backed up with scoring seven away to Fredericia, who currently sit third, in a fine 7-1 win.
Then last weekend, out of form Koge were the visitors and they were easily despatched 4-1. This means that Roskilde has scored 14 of their 31 league gaols over the last three games.
Helsingor are quite simply on a terrible run of form. It is six without victory for them, and on a grander scale it reads only two wins from their previous 16 in all competitions. They were obviously relegated at the end of last season and have seemingly been unable to shake off that horrible habit of losing games.
Having said that, Helsingor, known in short as FCH, did actually start this season pretty well. In league and cup, their first four matches yielded a return of two wins and two draws. However, that is as good as it has gone for them. Their last win actually was in the home meeting to Roskilde when scoring a 3-0 triumph. The hosts scored all three goals inside the opening half hour.
Eleven of the 16 points Helsingor have earned this season have come at their home ground, indicating they don’t tend to travel too well. In fact, they are only one of two teams in the league yet to win on the road. They’ve only netted five goals too, which is the worst of any side in the division.
Roskilde, known as FCR for short, are unbeaten in their last five in the league at home, winning three and drawing the other two. As mentioned, they are the team with all the momentum right now and it is tough to oppose them this weekend. Clearly they aren’t going to be scoring three, four or seven goals every match, but now is the time to keep them onside.
Considering we can get odds on 13/10 (Unibet) on a home win this Sunday, that just simply cannot be ignored. They are scoring goals for fun right now. Whilst this is essentially a bottom of the table game, they are the ones looking forward to this contest.
Only league leaders Viborg have scored more goals than Roskilde this season. Roskilde actually have the worst defensive record in the league, but their rate of goals at present, and the lack from FCH, means that they could very well outscore their opponents once more.
Taking all of the points into account, we have to give Roskilde a chance to prove themselves of being a good 13/10 shot to back. Helsingor are certainly of no appeal at all at their price.
The only slight worry is that Helsingor have drew 5/8 away, but trying to frustrate a side that score lots of goals won’t be easy, especially when that team trying to frustrate is bottom of the league.