Ankaragucu v Galatasaray | Sunday 12th July 2020, 16:30 | BT Sport
On Sunday afternoon we have a match which concerns both the top and bottom of the Turkish Super Lig as Ankaragucu take on Galatasaray at an empty Eryaman Stadium in Ankara.
We only have three matches remaining this season and it would now take something closer to a miracle for bottom side Ankaragucu to now avoid relegation. They sit bottom and six points from safety, and they’ve won only five times all season. They need to win.
Galatasaray have a different agenda as they retain every chance of earning qualification into next season’s Europa League, although their recent form would suggest that they’re trying their very best to avoid finishing either third or fourth. That is because Gala are seven without a win, and five of those were since the resumption. They’ve shipped seven goals in two games, and just look void of confidence.
As for Sunday’s hosts, it is no shock to see that they are struggling as well, although that has been the case for some time. They too are winless in all five since the resumption, although it did at least include three draws. Overall, it is one win in their past nine, but they do at least have a home win against Fenerbahce to their name as recently as February.
Although they are taking on the team bottom of the table, there is absolutely no way should you be taking an odds-on price on Gala to win this game. Of course, they can claim the three points and they will if they turn up, but they have an unconvincing won four, drew two and lost three league record this season when favourites for an away match. Outright they’ve failed to win 43.48% of their league matches when favourites, and that number is too high for a club of their size in a league such as this.
For the record, four of Ankaragucu’s five league wins came when they were pre-match outsider, although they have only actually been favourites in four games all season, and only won one! I’ve therefore made a good case to not really back either side in this one, but both do actually need the win.
The play will be on the bet-builder and a selection of Both Teams To Score and Over 2 Goals at 5/6 (Bet365) looks like a good call. Ankaragucu’s last seven has seen BTTS pay out, and five of those has at least three goals. Galatasaray’s last four scores read 3-3, 1-1, 3-1 and 4-1, so goals have followed them as well.
I like the goals angle here in what is ultimately a game both need to win and both have showcased recent defensive struggles.
Aalesund v Bodo/Glimt | Sunday 12th July 2020, 17:00
Those with an interest on Norwegian football will have noticed the incredible start to the campaign from Bodo/Glimt. Six games into the season and they retain a 100% record, and have gone about it in a more than impressive manner. They’re averaging four goals per game and have already won away at Rosenborg, Odd and Viking who finished third, fourth and fifth last season respectively.
Aalesund are back at this level having romped to the second division title last season, finishing some 14 points clear of second place. They only lost once all season, but things aren’t so easy in the next division above. Two games into this season, they had already lost more than they did in the whole of the previous year’s work. They’re winless in six, but have drew three of their past four.
We may only be about a month into the season but this top versus bottom encounter has already convincing the bookies that this should be something of a walkover for the away side. You’re looking at a price of 4/11 on a Bodo/Glimt victory here, and the fact they’re scoring so many goals means there is obviously an understandable reason for this.
However, this isn’t one of the top leagues in the world and the standard between all the clubs isn’t so vast, so Aalesund of course have every chance of causing a surprise here. The only reason I count them up purely is for the reason that Bodo/Glimt will drop points at some stage, and I just wonder if they’ll maybe think this will be an easy game for them.
Whilst they’ve started like a house on fire, they’ve never won this league and their runners-up finish last season was their joint-best result at this level. They can’t afford to take games like this lightly.
They are a team all about attack, attack, attack, and I can just see Sunday’s home team having more of a say than the odds suggest. Whilst they are without a win so far, every game has seen both teams scoring. They lost their first two matches 7-2 and 4-1, and they’ve clearly tightened up since then on a count of three draws in four.
Bodo/Glimt have mostly faced quite attack-minded opponents so far, and I just wonder if tactically this sort of match-up could challenge them more than we think.
Although Bodo/Glimt have back-to-back clean sheets to their name, their first four of the season also saw BTTS pay out. These two clubs are top two in the league in relation to the average amount of goals in their matches, so goals really should be on the agenda here.
I just can’t bring myself to back the away win here and it would just be sods law for them to fall short here. I’m also mindful that they will drop points at some stage, and Aalesund aren’t as bad as their early season form may suggest. Bodo/Glimt Double Chance and Both Teams To Score is a much safer call at 4/5 (Bet365) on the bet-builder.