WOLVES take on Watford in the second FA Cup semi-final of the weekend on Sunday at Wembley. Premier League analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at the betting.
Wolves v Watford | Sunday 7th April 2019, 16:00 | BT Sport
Given that just a point separates these two sides in the Premier League table, it is no surprise that a right, hard-fought encounter is expected at Wembley on Sunday afternoon.
Irrespective of how this game pans out, it has been a successful season for both clubs but it will be hard to explain that to even the most rational of supporters on the losing side.
Having spent plenty of time analysing this match, it’s hard to make a strong case that the outright prices are wildly inaccurate. However, I do feel like Watford are a bigger outsider with bookmakers than I expected them to be.
I understand why – performance data suggests that Wolves are comfortably the seventh best side in the Premier League table – but having seen these two sides several times this season, I really do not see much between them.
There promises to be an excellent midfield battle, with the physical Watford duo of Abdolauye Doucoure and Etienne Capoue up against perhaps the more skilful couple of Joao Mourinho and Ruben Neves. As a Watford backer, it gives me some confidence that they won the sole encounter between these two this season – 2-0 at Molineux – but the reality is that you can't read too much in to one game.
Wolves are no bigger than 31/20 anywhere for this one while you can get 21/10 on the Hornets outright. That isn't the bet for me but I feel the gap in price is too large. With the draw in 90 minutes a real runner, I like the look of the 59/50 Marathon are offering on Watford Draw No Bet.
Elsewhere, I would also recommend the 11/4 with Paddy Power on Troy Deeney in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The Watford marksman doesn't have the greatest goalscoring rate from open play but he is their designated penalty taker and with VAR in operation here, I think that makes this an excellent price.
Deeney has also scored in three of his last six games and scored the last time his side were in a FA Cup Semi-final (2016 against Crystal Palace).
I also had a look at the 2-1 scorelines for both sides and a margin of victory of one goal but didn't want to put too many eggs in that one basket.
Wolves v Watford – Watford Draw No Bet (59/50 Marathon)
Wolves v Watford – Troy Deeney to score at anytime (11/4 Paddy Power)