THE Top Goalscorer market is always a fascinating puzzle for punters. We asked Premier League fanatic Adam Goodwin (@agjournalism) to pinpoint the value from the 2018/19 season.
WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | Premier League: Top Goalscorer
Before I put forward my cases for who I think will be this year’s Premier League Top Goalscorer, let me whet your appetite with a few Golden Boot stats and facts.
- Thierry Henry has won the most Premier League Golden Boots, picking up four during his time at Arsenal.
- Henry holds the joint-record for most consecutive Golden Boots, tied with Alan Shearer on three.
- Mohamed Salah currently holds the record for most amount of goals in a 38-game season, when he bagged 32 for Liverpool last season.
- Unsurprisingly, 9/32 (29%) of the Premier League Top Goalscorers have been part of a team that has also won the league.
- The Golden Boot winner who finished lowest in the Premier League is Dion Dublin, when he was part of the Coventry side who ended the season in 11th in 1998.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (15/2 188BET)
Arsenal have been pretty hit and miss with their strikers over the last 15 years or so. Successes such as Thierry Henry, Dennis Bergkamp and Robin Van Persie will be remembered far more fondly than the likes of Yaya Sanogo, Marouane Chamakh and Nicklas Bendtner.
And after Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang joined Arsenal from Borussia Dortmund in January, it was clear to see after just a few months with the Gunners, that he was far more likely to find himself amongst the ‘hits’ rather than the ‘misses’. He played just 13 games last season after arriving for a reported £56 million but, in that time, he managed to find the back of the net an impressive 10 times.
This won’t surprise anyone who watched the Gabonese striker at Dortmund, as he averaged a tally of over 20 goals per season during his time in Germany. In the 2015/16 and the 2016/17 campaigns, he hit 25 and 30 goals respectively, in turn, cementing his place as one of the hottest strikers in the world.
The stats show you need an average of around 25 goals to win the Golden Boot, and with Aubameyang already achieving that twice during his time at Dortmund, the 29-year-old looks great value at 15/2 (188BET) to finish as Top Goalscorer.
Unlike his goalscoring rivals Harry Kane and Romelu Lukaku, he’s had the summer to rest and recoup, and he’ll be chomping at the bit to begin his first full season in English football.
Roberto Firmino (40/1 Winner)
The headlines were stolen by Roberto Firmino’s teammate Mohamed Salah last season, but perhaps now it’s time for the Brazilian to take centre stage at Anfield.
A vital part of Liverpool’s now world-renowned front three, Firmino has been known for his unselfishness and tireless work-rate over the last couple of years. Whilst this isn’t something you’d necessarily want from someone you’re going to back for Top Goalscorer, it looks like the Reds’ no.9 will have less defensive responsibilities next season after the additions of Naby Keita and Fabinho.
A remarkable 24/31 (77.5%) players that have won the Golden Boot have been part of a side that has finished within the top four and, after some significant additions in the summer, you’d fancy Liverpool to do that again this season. Jurgen Klopp clearly has faith in Firmino, highlighted by his lack of desire to bring in another centre-forward, meaning that the Brazilian will start the majority of Liverpool’s Premier League games next season.
With the likes of Sadio Mane, Salah and Keita around him, Firmino will have plenty of chances created for him, and at a huge 40/1 with Winner (as short as 20/1 in other places), he looks a great bet to have a season as bright as his teeth.
Cenk Tosun (100/1 Royal Panda)
Whilst I don’t necessarily think this player is capable of actually winning the Golden Boot, pretty much every bookmaker is paying out four places and, at 100/1, I think it’s definitely worth a punt.
On average, a player that finishes as fourth top scorer scores around 17.9 goals and I think Cenk Tosun is more than capable of that. The Turkish striker was signed by Sam Allardyce in January for around £27 million but didn’t set the Premier League alight when arriving at Goodison Park.
Five goals in 14 appearances isn’t bad but I believe there’s a lot more to come from Tosun and, now how he’s settled in on Merseyside, this could be a huge season for him.
Similarly to Firmino, Tosun will be surrounded by creative players and the likes of Gylfi Sigurdsson and Richarlison will be playing behind him to supply him with chances. Richarlison, especially, has the potential to bring the best out of Tosun and Brazilian journalist Rodrigo Calvozzo explains how the he brought the best out of Henrique Dourado:
“They were together at Fluminense. In 2016 he hardly scored (2 goals) but with Richarlison alongside him in 2017 he became the most important striker in Brazil (32 goals).” Whether he can bring the same goals tally out of Tosun is yet to be seen, but he’ll certainly be an influential part of Everton’s side next season.
The centre-forward averaged a goal every 157 minutes during his last two seasons at Besiktas and he’s currently at the perfect time of his life if he wants to win the Golden Boot. The average age of the Premier League top scorer is 27 (the same age as Tosun) and more 27-year-old’s have been Top Goalscorer than any other age.
If you like that stat, other Premier League players that are currently 27 are Kevin De-Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Nathaniel Clyne. Take your pick…
Best Bets
2018/19 Premier League – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to be Top Goalscorer (15/2 188BET)
2018/19 Premier League – Roberto Firmino to be Top Goalscorer (40/1 each-way Winner)
2018/19 Premier League – Cenk Tosun to be Top Goalscorer (100/1 each-way Royal Panda)
