THE Top Goalscorer market is always a fascinating puzzle for punters. We asked Football League fanatic Ben Levene (@benlevene96) to pinpoint the value from the 2018/19 League Two season.
WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | League Two: Top Goalscorer
Over the last 14 seasons, the average League Two top scorer has netted 25 times. In the past three seasons, the winner of this market has scored 27, 26, and most recently 25 goals.
They’ve generally come from near the top of the market too. The last four seasons (including a tie) have seen top scorers with prices of 33/1, 14/1, 40/1, 28/1, and 16/1.
During that time there have been 66/1, 40/1, and 80/1 places. Last season, former Cheltenham star Mo Eisa earnt each-way money at a three-figure price.
Unlike the open League One Top Goalscorer market, the League Two line-up is pretty bland. John Akinde and Kristian Dennis are by far the most likely top-scorers, and lo-and-behold, they head the betting.
However, 29% of Akinde’s League Two goals in the past three seasons came from the penalty spot. Yes, he should theoretically score more now he’s at a better team but it doesn’t always work like that.
At Barnet, Akinde was the main-man and the Bees played to his strengths. Whilst Lincoln also supply plenty of crosses, he’ll have Matt Green, Shay McCartan, and Bruno Andrade to share the goals amongst. His role may be different.
Meanwhile, Dennis is apart of a deep Notts County squad, so won’t be the key man like he was at Chesterfield. He has Kane Hemmings and Jon Stead to compete with up top too – over the course of the season he could lose his place amidst a bad-run.
Danny Newton (50/1 BetVictor)
At 50/1, I’m coy on the chances of Danny Newton.
The tenacious left-footed striker took an interesting route into football. Newton joined Stevenage last summer after impressing at Jamie Vardy’s V9 academy.
Naturally, he’s been compared to the England international, but Newton lived up to the hype last season.
The former Tamworth man outscored strike-partner Matty Godden, who has since earned a move to League One’s Peterborough.
Alongside Alex Revell, Newton will have a foil to feed-off, and could thrive on flick-ons and second-balls.
Stevenage have recruited well across the park, and Newton could benefit if more chances are created. At 50/1 (BetVictor), I like his chances.
Luke Norris (66/1 BetVictor)
Along similar lines, Luke Norris needs to be mentioned at 66/1.
Unlike Newton though, Norris finds himself in League Two after not quite cutting it in the tier above.
Norris moved from Swindon to Colchester this summer, after netting 13 times in 46 games for the Robins last season.
As the spearhead of a settled Colchester side, Norris could be in the goals once again.