LEAGUE ONE expert Gabriel Sutton (@FootballLab) takes a look at Sunday's tussle between Wimbledon and Peterborough.
Wimbledon v Peterborough | Sunday 12th October 2017, 14:30 | Sky Sports
Seeing as AFC Wimbledon are eight places above Peterborough United in the six-game form table, some might be tempted to back home advantage to count here with the odds balanced.
Me? I'm on the Peterborough bus.
Granted, McCann’s side aren’t the attacking force they were in August and their hosts are not the easiest team to score against.
As we saw with Marcus Maddison’s winner against leaders Shrewsbury in their last league match however, the away side still have remnants of quality.
It wasn’t the most fluent performance from Posh, but Steven Taylor was a menace back in his favoured centre-back role while Anthony Grant battled superbly in midfield.
They ended the EFL’s last unbeaten run by limiting Salop to few opportunities in open play, with goalkeeper Jonathan Bond doing the necessary when called upon.
They should have similar success in quelling the division’s lowest scorers with nine goals in 16.
Wimbledon have arguably gone into their shell a little since the first half of last season – their primary plan is now to defend deep.
At home to Plymouth last month, manager Neal Ardley changed much of the side that had deservedly beaten Rotherham previously and started three holding midfielders. The team backed off Argyle and perhaps showed too much respect to the league’s bottom side.
With that outlook, they normally hold onto leads, but have taken just one point and scored one goal in 10 games that have seen their opponents strike first.
Posh to silence the Wombles
If we are going to back an away victory therefore, we might as well back a clean sheet to go with it.
A Peterborough win ‘to nil' – or a Wimbledon defeat in the same way – has occurred in 35.5% of games involving either side, yet Coral’s 21/5 implies a probability of just 19.2%. That's a notable gap, even if we take form and venue into account.
It’s hard to see Posh having the confidence to run away with this one by three or four goals, so we could aim for an even chunkier price.
An away win with Under 2.5 Goals is 11/2 with Coral – eight of the Wombles’ 16 games have resulted in a 1-0 or 2-0 defeat and 14 of their encounters have seen less than three goals.
For those who fancy an outside punt, another moment of Maddison magic to open the scoring in a 2-0 Peterborough win is 70/1.
We’re going with McCann’s men to edge a low-scoring game.
Wimbledon v Peterborough – Peterborough to win with Under 2.5 Goals (11/2 Coral)