West Brom vs Arsenal | Saturday 2nd January 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
If you’d asked me a week ago how this game was going to go, I’d have plumped for a dull, low-scoring draw. Arsenal looked like a lost cause under Mikel Arteta, and West Brom under Sam Allardyce is not something that sparks joy.
Since then; Arsenal have picked up back-to-back wins against tough opposition in Chelsea and Brighton, and look like they’ve been buoyed by the exciting young talent in their squad. West Brom still do not spark joy, but they followed up an impressive draw at Anfield with a 5-0 drubbing at home to Leeds – which contributed to a trend of worrying results at the Hawthorns.
The Baggies have lost three in a row at home by an aggregate scoreline of 13-1, and I’m not sure you could say they were particularly unlucky in those games.
In fact the Baggies have lost the expected goals battle in every game they’ve played this season, by an average of 2.01-0.55 per game – as far as the underlying metrics are concerned, they are the league’s worst attack AND the league’s worst defence.
Nowhere is that more evident than in the second half of games. West Brom haven’t scored a single goal after the 30th minute in any of their eight home league games. They’ve conceded 17 goals in that same time period.
Arsenal, on the other hand, have allowed just one second half goal in their eight away games – and that was to league leaders and reigning Champions, Liverpool.
With that in mind, I’ll be backing Under 0.5 Second Half Goals for West Brom. The price of 5/9 doesn’t really appeal though, so I’ll be combining it with each team to pick up a card too.
Arsenal have earned a card in seven of eight away games, while West Brom have seen at least one card in seven of eight home games. Using bet365’s BetBuilder feature, take Under 1 Goal in the 2nd Half for West Brom, Over 0 Cards in the Match for Arsenal and Over 0 Cards in the Match for West Brom at 6/5.
West Brom vs Arsenal – Under 1 Second-Half West Brom Goal, Over 0 West Brom Cards and Over 0 Arsenal Cards (6/5 Bet365)