BETTING analyst Adam Wallis (@SharpSignals) shares his verdict on Super Sunday's showdown between Watford and Leicester at Vicarage Road.
Watford v Leicester | Sunday 3rd March 2019, 12:00 | Sky Sports
Watford host Leicester on Sunday in a match that sees a battle for the title of the ‘Best of the Rest’.
Both these teams are in limbo, where they have accumulated enough points to be safe but are miles off the Big Six and European qualification places.
The home side come into this game on the back of a 5-0 drubbing at league leaders Liverpool. Previous to that the Hornets scored five themselves against strugglers Cardiff.
Positioned eighth in the league on 40 points, Watford are at the top of a host of teams that respectively have nothing to play for in terms of silverware, European football or a battle against relegation. This list of teams includes Leicester, who have just appointed a very experienced manager in Brenden Rodgers.
The Hornets are unbeaten in three games at Vicarage Road, though they have not scored more than once in their last four and have seen Under 2.5 Goals in three of those matches. They will be looking to bounce back here and with league superiority over Leicester by five points, they may take the game to the Foxes.
Jose Holebas returns from suspension and will slot back into the left-back position, whilst Ken Sema could replace Will Hughes in midfield.
Leicester sacked Claude Puel last weekend after a 4-1 loss in front of their home fans to Crystal Palace. The Foxes confirmed the appointment of Rodgers before they faced Brighton in midweek, a game that saw the former Premier League champions win 2-1.
This will be Rodgers’ first official game in charge of Leicester so team news is hard to get a handle on, though he does have some quality to choose from. Marc Albrighton and Daniel Amartey are both out and Ben Chilwell doubtful.
Leicester haven’t really fired this season and will now look to build for next term. They will be out to impress their new manager and also give the traveling fans something to cheer about.
The betting angle
Leicester have seen 43% of their away games go Over 2.5 Goals, with 64% of those games seeing both teams score; the Foxes have tended to win or lose by just a one-goal margin.
Watford are seven points better off this season than at this point last season. Both Teams To Score has landed in 54% of their matches at Vicarage Road, with 69% going Over 2.5.
I fancy Leicester to win this and also Both Teams To Score, combining the two gives us a 5/1 shot at Bet365. I also fancy goals so Over 2.5 – alongside BTTS we’re getting a 61/50 (Marathon) poke, whilst there’s merit in attacking the Exact Goal market with a goal-heavy game possibly on the cards.