Ukraine vs Austria | Thursday 17th June 2020, 20:00 | BBC
Ukraine take on Austria in Bucharest on Monday, with both sides level on three points after beating North Macedonia and losing to Netherlands in their opening two matches.
Due to having scored one more goal, the Blue and Yellow will be guaranteed second spot if they avoid defeat, while a point could be enough to see Das Team progress as one of the best four third-placed sides.
As such, the odds on the draw have crashed to around evens, with many observers predicting that both teams will play for a point apiece.
However, t's still technically possible that all six third-placed teams could finish on four points, while three points certainly isn't looking like enough for Ukraine to progress if they lose this match.
As such, I don't think they will set out for that from the start given the risks attached.
Ukraine have impressed me more out of these two sides so far, so I like the look of Andriy Yarmolenko and Ruslan Malinovskyi both to have Over 1.5 Shots each at 11/4 (bet365).
Malinovskyi played higher up the pitch in the absence of the injured Oleksandr Zubkov against North Macedonia, with the Atalanta man and Yarmolenko both having five shots apiece.
I don't expect similar numbers here given the aforementioned game state – and Austria are obviously a better team – but with Malinovskyi on set-pieces and Yarmolenko likely to be keen on adding to his tally of two goals for the tournament so far, this seems a generous price.
All said and done, I do think both teams would take a draw if offered given the security for Ukraine and Austria's unconvincing displays so far, so should the game still be level with 20-30 minutes to go, it would be little surprise to see very few risks taken from either side.
Funnily enough Austria have been in a similar position in the past at the 1982 World Cup, when they knew a one or two-goal defeat to West Germany in their final group game would see both nations progress to the knockout stages.
West Germany duly took the lead after 10 minutes, with an infamous amount of passing around the back ensuing as neither side even attempted to attack.
I can't imagine a similar scenario in this day and age, particularly with less certainty for Austria this time around, but equally I do think there's still just about enough value to be had on the draw at 21/20 (bet365).
My third and final selection is Manchester City's Oleksandr Zinchenko to have 3+ tackles at 10/11 (Sky Bet).
Zinchenko plays an important midfield role for his country as opposed to left-back for his club, with the 24-year-old making eight tackles against Netherlands and four against North Macedonia.
Austria have had more possession in both of their matches so far and should do so again here given that any emphasis to win the match is on them, so hopefully Zinchenko can get stuck in again.
4+ is 9/4, 5+ is 5/1 and 6+ is 10/1 for those wanting to take higher lines.