Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayern Munich | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Lokomotiv surprised most of us by picking up a point in an entertaining 2-2 draw with Salzburg in Austria last week but that would be dwarfed by the seismic shock of gaining any kind of positive result here against the current champions of Europe, Bayern Munich.
Unfortunately for them, the Russians have wretched home form in this competition having lost five of their last six UCL group stage games here in the last two campaigns.
Meanwhile Hansi Flick’s team bulldoze their way past all who come before them – which included the usually resolute Atletico Madrid in game week one by four goals to nil, then following that up with a 5-0 drubbing of Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga.
Robert Lewandowski made up for his rare blank against Diego Simeone’s men by smashing a weekend hattrick to take his tally to 10 league goals in five matches played – he is as short as an incredible 1/5 to find the target at the RZD Arena so I am casting my eye elsewhere in the Bayern team in search of a value scorer.
Although Serge Gnabry is expected back for the Bavarians – more good news for Marko Nikolic – I like the 3/1 available with Betfair for Leon Goretzka to get on the scoresheet.
The 25-year-old has had at least one shot in every game he has played this season, with four attempts at the weekend and three last week against Atletico where he also added his sides second goal just before the half time interval. With three goals in seven starts for club and country I think that makes the odds available a little bit of value.
With their UCL winning run now stretching to 12 and an average winning margin of 3.25, I have to take Bayern on the Asian Handicap again this week especially when looking back to last season and seeing their group stage away record read 7-2, 3-2 and 6-0 victories.
I’m more than happy to take -2.5 at odds against from Bet 365 (51/50).
Shakhtar vs Inter Milan | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 17:55 | BT Sport
Shock result of the round probably belonged to Shakhtar last week as they raced in to a 3-0 half time lead at Real Madrid before surviving a second half comeback to eventually run out winners of a five-goal thriller.
Inter meanwhile needed a 90th minute Romelu Lukaku strike to salvage a point from their home tie with Borussia Monchengladbach.
These two sides met just a few weeks ago in the semi-final of the Europa League in a game which also produced five goals – all of which however were scored by Antonio Conte’s men.
Will revenge be on the menu here? I’m not so sure but it does look likely that goals will be as Shakhtar have conceded at least two goals in 10 of their last 13 UCL group stage encounters, while eight of the Nerazzurri’s last 10 games in Europe have featured 3 or more goals.
With goals likely I have picked a scorer from each side – a safe bet in the aforementioned Lukaku who we successfully pinpointed last week and can get onside with again at 1/1 with Sky Bet.
Manor Solomon interests me for the hosts – although not generally prolific the Israeli international has scored in each of his sides last three games including what turned out to be the winning goal in the Bernabeu last week – the 11/2 with Betway for a player in such fine goalscoring form to strike again is worth a play in my book.
Atalanta vs Ajax | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Mouthwatering is the only way to describe this tie!
Atalanta have lost both league games either side of their 4-0 win in this group last week, whereas Ajax have sandwiched their defeat to Liverpool with two Eredivisie league wins – and with an incredible aggregate scoreline of 18-1!
It pains me to side against one of my favourite teams in Europe but although the weekend defeat to Sampdoria was with a heavily rotated side being able to back Ajax AND the draw at odds against is too good an opportunity to let pass.
Erik ten Hag saw his side undefeated away from home in last season’s UCL group games winning twice with the other being a remarkable 4-4 draw at Chelsea and starting as underdogs here will not phase them as they have won three and drawn three of their last six such away games in this competition. As five of those six games featured goals from both sides, Ajax/Draw double chance and both teams to score is 8/5 with Betway and gets my vote.
The risk with backing against Atalanta is they can blow any side away within minutes, as they did last week taking a 3-0 lead in to the half time interval at Midtjylland. So, my second selection covers that in some respect and with Ajax firing in 13 goals from 45 shots on Saturday both sides are more than capable of contributing to cover the over 27.5 shots line at 4/5 with Unibet.
Atletico Madrid vs Salzburg | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Diego Simeone must still be smarting from the way his side were swept aside by Bayern Munich last week although it was normal service resumed at the weekend with a 2-0 home win over Betis – a fourth clean sheet in five games.
Salzburg will be kicking themselves they didn’t secure all three points last week at home to Lokomotiv and will know claiming a win here will be a tough task, even with their tremendous scoring record.
The Wanda Metropolitano is a fortress for the side from Madrid, who are unbeaten in 16 competitive fixtures there and in 10 UCL games (W8, D2) although I feel Jesse Marsch’s side have enough to cause problems going forward.
Unbeaten in 11 in all competitions (W10, D1), the Austrians have an average of 2.2 goals scored from their European road trips over the last couple of seasons. I am taking Salzburg to extend a run of five successive European games which have seen over 2.5 match goals and both teams scoring at odds of 21/20 with William Hill.
One thing we can usually expect from Atletico is battle and bite – so if this game does go the way I have outlined there could be a few cards shown to home players over the 90 minutes and a price that stood out to me was Unibet’s 11/2 for Hector Herrera to be carded.
The Mexican ended a run of four successive games in which he had his name taken – including last week in Munich plus in a 14-minute cameo against Celta Vigo – when he came off the bench at half time and completed a card free 45 minutes. If he starts here, which isn’t guaranteed, there is value in him picking up another caution.
Porto vs Olympiacos | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
I am off to Portugal for this week’s penalty award game with Daniel Siebert the man in the middle and he has a rather prolific UCL record to maintain!
Four penalties from five Champions League games is an incredible average and this level is quite a jump from officiating in Bundesliga 2 as he was at the weekend.
The German whistle blower has taken charge of two top-flight games this season pointing to the spot in the first of those – incidentally in the other he flashed a red card, so I think there is a high chance of one or the other in this fixture. I’m siding with the penalty award and will take the 2/1 available with William Hill.
Both sides should come in to this game relatively fresh with Porto heavily rotating their squad at the weekend and Olympiacos having their game postponed.
I have to side with the home side here – as they look to make it six consecutive UCL group stage home wins by defeating the Greeks who although pulled off a surprise win over Marseille last week have lost seven straight away games in this part of the competition.
Odds on a home win are short enough so with goals traditionally featuring for both sides when playing at home and away respectively in the group stages, I will play Porto to win and over 2.5 goals at 19/10 with Boyle.
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Real Madrid | Tuesday 27th October 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Having been shocked by defeat to Shakhtar last week, Real Madrid will know they can’t afford another slip up here and will look to build on the confidence boosting El Clasico victory by getting their first UCL points of this campaign on the board.
As you would expect Sergio Ramos was heavily involved in the victory over their Catalan rivals with three attempts at goal and scoring from the spot. Zinedine Zidane will once again look to his on pitch leader who was sorely missed against Shakhtar, to inspire his troops and we can take 7/2 with Betway for Ramos to get on the scoresheet once again as he has done not only at Barcelona but four times in total from 13 appearances for club and country this season.
Despite being denied victory last week in the 90th minute Marco Rose’s side are yet to win a competitive game at home this season and if they are to rectify that they will need to win the midfield battle.
Los Blancos have the tough tackling Casemiro ball winning for the fantastic Toni Kroos who tops their La Liga passing averages with 70 per game and also managed 34 as a 70th minute sub last week, so getting in amongst those two, disrupting play will be crucial in laying the foundations for a home win.
That responsibility is likely to fall to Christoph Kramer and Florian Neuhaus. It was the latter who impressed against Inter successfully winning all five of his attempted tackles while Kramer chipped in with two. The 23-year-old has also made at least two tackles in each of his last four Bundesliga starts, so I was surprised to see Ladbrokes offer 1/1 on him doing at least that again here and is my final selection.
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayern Munich – Leon Goretzka to score (3/1 Betfair)
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Bayern Munich – Bayern Munich -2.5 Asian Handicap (51/50 Bet365)
Shakhtar vs Inter Milan – Romelu Lukaku to score (1/1 SkyBet)
Shakhtar vs Inter Milan – Manor Solomon to score (11/2 Betway)
Atalanta vs Ajax – Ajax Double Chance and Both Teams To Score (8/5 Betway)
Atalanta vs Ajax – Over 27.5 Total Shots (4/5 Unibet)
Atletico Madrid vs Salzburg – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (21/20 William Hill)
Atletico Madrid vs Salzburg – Hector Herrera to be carded (11/2 Unibet)
Porto vs Olympiacos – Penalty awarded (2/1 William Hill)
Porto vs Olympiacos – Porto win and Over 2.5 Goals (19/10 Boylesports)
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Real Madrid – Sergio Ramos to score (7/2 Betway)
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Real Madrid – Florian Neuhaus 2+ tackles (1/1 Ladbrokes)