EFL fan Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) oversees Sunday's action from the third-tier, as Tranmere host Wycombe in League One, picking out his best bets.
Tranmere v Wycombe | Sunday 17th November 2019, 12:00 | Sky Sports
Just eight days after playing out a 2-2 draw in the FA Cup 1st Round, Wycombe return to Prenton Park, but this time in league action.
The FA Cup replay is set for Wednesday, so by the end of it, they’ll be sick of the sight of each other. For what it’s worth, the winner will host non-league Chichester City in the 2nd Round.
Wycombe are level on points with Ipswich at the top of League One and they’ve lost just once this season – outpunching what many expected.
That defeat came on the road at Gillingham in September, and the Chairboys are unbeaten in eight league matches since (W5-D3-L0).
The fluid 4-3-3/4-5-1 set-up has meant Wycombe have proved difficult to break down, especially on their travels. They’ve kept four clean sheets in their seven away games, but that said they average under a goal per-game scored.
Gareth Ainsworth’s outfit 3-0 away win at Rochdale is the only trip that has seen Over 2.5 Goals, plus their last four in the league have been low scorers, so this could be quite a tight affair.
First goal crucial?
Micky Mellon’s hosts were on TV during the last international break when performing a smash-and-grab victory against Coventry at St Andrew’s.
Three games since then and they’ve recorded a result of each kind, although Tranmere were hammered 5-0 at Sunderland, as the Black Cats players put on a show for their new manager.
Last time out in the league, Aston Villa loanee Rushian Hepburn-Murphy netted his first hat-trick to give Rovers three points away at struggling MK Dons.
Even though they’ve had some nice home fixtures to start this season, Tranmere haven’t really capitalised with just two wins. The new boys did come from 2-0 down to earn a point against free-scoring Peterborough, but the recurring theme is conceding the first goal.
The only game here at Prenton Park where Rovers didn’t fall behind was in a 5-0 win over Bolton – that’s the only clean sheet Mellon’s men have kept in front of their fans.
Given how resolute and hard to break down Wycombe have been, it could well prove to be a case of who scores first, wins.
The betting angles
With defences likely to be on top given how both of these sides set up, the draw could well be played out. If you take their respective home and away form in League One, then 7/14 have ended all square – 3/7 Tranmere at home and 4/7 Wycombe away.
Rovers were excellent at the back in that win at Coventry, so will give their visitors plenty to think about in terms of breaking them down.
Despite the gap in the league table, these could well cancel each other out giving the price of the draw (67/25 Marathon) some scope.
The other play is stats based around Tranmere corners.
This season Rovers have taken 76 corners, an average of 5.10 per-game. At home, that becomes 41 taken with an average of 5.90.
Overall, Tranmere have taken 5+ corners in 5/7 home games, plus their trips to Ipswich (9), Sunderland (8) and MK Dons (5) also saw them reach or surpass this figure.