Tottenham vs Brentford | Thursday 2nd December 2021, 19:30 | Amazon
The fifth game of the Antonio Conte era at Spurs sees his side host Brentford on Thursday night.
The Italian’s reputation and winning record may explain why the hosts are 3/5 favourites here as they have only won 50% of their games when priced accordingly and are only three points above Brentford in the table.
Their position in the in top flights proceedings does appear to flatter them a little as well as the underlying data has them 6th from bottom, eight places lower then they are currently. Nevertheless, they have taken four points from a possible six under the italians tutelage domestically and have been good value for those.
It is also worth noting that Spurs had the weekend off following the postponement of their game at Turf Moor and I do not think you can underestimate the importance of that rest amidst a hectic schedule with European commitments.
Cristian Romero will miss out here with a thigh injury so either Japhet Tanganga and Davinson Sanchez will slot in at RCB in a back three. Elsewhere, Oliver Skipp is back available following suspension and will likely partner Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in central midfield.
In stark contrast, the visitors should consider themselves unfortunate to sit in 12th as their xPTS tally has them in 4th- behind City, Liverpool and Chelsea- on 21.97 points. An Ivan Toney penalty was enough to collect the points as they hosted Everton in their most recent game, though with only a 0.23 xG difference between the sides, they rode their luck.
The Bees have only failed to score in three of their 16 games in all competitions this season. Chelsea, Palace and Brighton were the only three sides to keep them out, however, they generated an xG of 3.49 across those three games so were desperately unlucky not to find the net on any occasion.
At even money with William Hill, I think backing BTTS is worth two points here, especially considering that it has landed in three of Conte’s games at Spurs so far.
Another angle I think is worth pursuing in this game is the hosts full backs in the goalscorer market.
At Chelsea and Inter Milan, Antonio Conte has deployed a system with wingbacks and gives said wingbacks an integral role in attack. This often sees a spike in these players' offensive output, predominantly in terms of goals and assists.
For example, first season at Inter (19/20), Ashley Young had a goals + assists average of 0.61 per 90 in Serie A. This was his highest total average in eight seasons since he first joined Man Utd back in 2011 when he was playing in midfield. The following season he went on to average 0.31 whilst fellow wingback Achraf Hakimi averaged 0.51 which is his best total to date.
In Conte’s first game at Spurs, LWB Sergio Reguilon had as many shots in those 90 minutes as he had managed in 804 minutes of top flight action (2), he also had a goal chalked off. Emerson Royal also had a shot. In their last EPL fixtures vs Leeds, Reguilon had another two shots, one of which found the back of the net, and Royal got in numerous goal scoring positions but his side just failed to pick him out.
I think both these players are worth a punt in the goalscorers market as Conte will look to utilize them in attack. Sergio Reguilon is 25/2 and Emerson is 35/2, both with SBK, and I have had a point on each.
Tottenham vs Brentford – Both Teams To Score (1/1 William Hill)
Tottenham vs Brentford – Sergio Reguilon to score at anytime (25/2 SBK)
Tottenham vs Brentford – Emerson to score at anytime (35/2 SBK)