THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE quarter-finals commence on Tuesday evening. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from Tottenham's tie with Manchester City.
Tottenham v Manchester City | Tuesday 9th April 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
It was likely that two of the remaining four English teams would have to meet in the quarter-finals of the Champions League as tournament favourites Manchester City travel to Spurs’ new home, which will play host to its first-ever European night. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere in North London but it looks a mighty challenge for the hosts.
Winning this trophy is seen as the holy grail for the hierarchy at Man City, it’s the prime reason they brought Pep Guardiola to the club. A poor result here wouldn’t be the end of the world given it’s over two legs and the next one is at the Etihad. Therefore, odds-on quotes on the visitors don’t make massive appeal.
Having said that, I could understand people thinking the 7/8 price available for City is more than fine. Take the recent record of these two sides and Spurs have lost eight of their last 19 games, that’s seen them slip from perennial title hopefuls to a scrap for fourth place. Man City, on the other hand, have won a mammoth 21 of their last 23 games.
We have to throw in the new stadium factor as well. Spurs dominated and deservedly won their opening game at the brilliantly named Tottenham Hotspur Stadium against Crystal Palace. The underlying data reflected that with Spurs winning 2.33-0.55 in the Expected Goals (xG) battle.
It’s been a long time since Spurs had all of their main threats fit simultaneously. Heung Min-Son, Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli and Harry Kane are in contention to play and that presents a selection headache for Mauricio Pochettino. He could go 5-3-1-1 with Alli supporting Kane or an alternative approach would be to play Alli deeper and dispose of one of Harry Winks or Moussa Sissoko, that would allow Son to partner Kane up front.
Man City aren’t without their own injury problems though. There is still a question mark over the fitness of key man Sergio Aguero; his potential absence could have a significant impact on both the match itself and the betting. Not only that, City have a problem at left back with Oleksander Zinchenko and Fabian Delph both out, which see Aymeric Laporte shift over.
The betting angle
It’s a troubling fixture on the 1×2, in my opinion. if Aguero does play, I think the price on City is fine, however the fact this is over two legs, it would be a tentative punt to back the away side given it’s not all on this single fixture. Spurs will have to get a decent result here if they do want to progress so it could be a case of a Draw doesn’t upset either side.
It’s true that Spurs are almost immune to sharing the spoils – they’ve only drawn once this season in the league against Arsenal. However, the dynamic shifts when it’s played over two legs. When a game is priced up like this with the away side around even-money my initial thought is to look at the draw.
It’s priced up at 3/1 (BetVictor) and that’s longer than the average price for a stalemate and looks worth a small play.
It was tempting to get involved in the goals market but with over 2.5 trading at 4/6 it looks fine to swerve. Man City have seen Under 2.5 land in their last three and four of Spurs’ last six have seen fewer than three goals.
Tottenham v Manchester City – Draw (3/1 BetVictor)