Sweden vs Poland | Wednesday 23rd June 2020, 17:00 | ITV
It is top versus bottom in Group E on matchday three as resolute Sweden face Poland in Saint Petersburg. It is win or bust for the Poles but with the Swedes still yet to concede in the tournament they have a mountain to climb.
It was a spirited display in matchday two to hold Spain to a 1-1 draw thanks to Robert Lewandowski’s equaliser but it still feels like we are yet to see Poland’s best form. You know what you are going to get from Sweden, a well drilled 4-4-2 formation with a reliance on the individual quality of Emil Forsberg, Alexander Isak and the returning Dejan Kulusevksi in offense.
Poland were on the back foot from matchday one after an unfortunate own goal and poor conduct from Grzegorz Krychowiak reducing them to ten saw them lose 2-1 to Slovakia. With Milan Skriniar of all people popping up with the winner, therefore it was paramount they put in a positive performance and took something from the Spain match.
Despite Luis Enrique’s men demonstrating why they are the top team in the group with their chance creation, drawing both of their opening matches really opens up this spread. It dangles the carrot of potential group winners for Sweden, and a chance to hold on even with a draw.
Janne Andersson’s side have been unfortunate to only score once so far, the floodgates may open at some point. If Kulusevski can hit the ground running on his return it will make a huge difference.
These nations have not locked horns since 2004 so there is a lot to go off in that respect, there is an argument that this will mean more to the Polish however, they have not fared too well at a major tournament since Euro 2016, this generation is on the way down where Sweden’s is coming up, even after Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s withdrawal.
To see Poland as narrow favourites was surprising given their opening two games and how composed Sweden have looked in and out of possession, I think they will be able to strangle an upper hand here with the Poles getting increasingly desperate for a goal as the match draws on.
Sweden are the pick here at the prices, they had to grind it out against Slovakia but could have made it more comfortable than the scoreline suggested. Let’s make it two greens in two Sweden tips.
Sweden vs Poland – Sweden (0) Handicap (21/20 Bet365)