STATS genius Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Sunday's Bundesliga contest between Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt, pinpointing the value bet according to the trends.
Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt | Sunday 20th August 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
The market currently has Freiburg chalked up as 8/5 shots on Sunday – at that price the hosts’ implied probably of winning is 39% – and I think there is value to be exploited here.
If we look at the raw numbers over the past three seasons, we can clearly see the market appears to be undervaluing Freiburg’s chances of victory.
Freiburg’s home stats
Christian Streich’s side have W28-D10-L13 across those past three campaigns at their Schwarzwald-Stadion home with a win rate of 55% – that’s including promotion and relegation seasons.
With average odds around the 2/1 mark, Freiburg have actually returned a +20.24 unit profit.
Three seasons ago Freiburg only won 5/17 (29%) of their home ties during their relegation campaign but they were still a profitable team to back.
Had you backed the Black Forest club blindly in each of their 17 games, you’d have won 18.58 – that’s a +1.58 profit.
During their promotion season, Freiburg were pre-match favourites in 16/17 (94%) of Bundesliga 2 games at the Schwarzwald-Stadion.
Nevertheless, they still returned a profit of +7.61 units on their way to winning the league.
Last season Streich’s charges picked up 10/17 (59%) victories when welcoming Bundesliga opposition, returning profits of +11.05 units.
Eintracht Frankfurt’s away stats
In contrast, Frankfurt have been very poor on their travels over the same three-season spell.
The Eagles have lost 32/51 (63%) of away league matches and so backing the home win against Frankfurt has proven very profitable too. Here’s how:
- 2014/2015 – Frankfurt lost 10/17 (59%) away, returning +4.12 units profit when backing the home win.
- 2015/2016 Frankfurt lost 11/17 (65%) away, returning +2.24 units profit when backing the home win.
- 2016/2017 Frankfurt lost 11/17 (65%) away, returning +4.94 units profit when backing the home win.
That’s a total of +11.3 units profit when backing the home side against Eintracht.
The betting angle
So the 8/5 (Betway) available for a home Freiburg triumph looks terrific value for Sunday’s season opener.
More conservative punters should consider backing the hosts off a scratch 0 start on the Asian Handicap line at 13/16 (188BET) – backing this bet will see our stake returned as a push if the game ends all-square.
*Profits based on the Pinnacle closing price
Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt – Freiburg to win (8/5 Betway)