Stats Value Bets | 25th May 2015


CAN the stats lead us to big value winning bets? In a new feature, we highlight the best value opportunities based purely on the stats and trends available.

Lokomotiv Moscow v Kuban Krasnodar | Monday 16.30

Lokomotiv Moscow won the Russian Cup on Thursday, defeating Kuban Krasnodar 3-1 in extra time to lift their first trophy for eight years. Now the two teams will go head-to-head again in their penultimate league fixture of the campaign.

It was a welcome boost for Loko who sae boss Miodrag Bozovic resign earlier this month after a miserable run of results. Igor Cherevchenko will be leading the team for the remainder of the season but rather than looking at the Match Odds, it’s the Both Teams To Score market that holds most appeal.

Thirteen league fixtures at Lokomotiv Stadium have returned 7/13 (54%) of BTTS losers whilst visitors Kuban have seen 9/14 (64%) of their away league outings feature both sides not scoring with the Toads failing to find the net themselves in exactly half of those 14 fixtures.

If we put both sides’ home/away records together and find the average, we should be looking at just a 59% chance of both sides not scoring on Monday evening and that percentage equates to around a 4/6 shot in betting terms. SkyBet have made ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market a 4/5 play, making it a value selection.

FC Midtjylland v Brondby | Monday 18.00

FC Midtjylland have been crowned champions of Denmark with three games to spare and Glen Riddersholm’s troops will be looking to complete a flawless campaign at the MCH Arena on Monday evening.

The Wolves have won all 15 of their Danish Superliga fixtures on home soil this season with nine victories coming ‘to nil’, seven of which have arrived in their most recent nine outings at their Herning base.

Visitors Brondby are sitting comfortably in third and although their W7-D2-L1 run since early March is impressive, the Yellows have W5-D2-L7 on their travels this season, failing to score in five of those defeats and notching just 13 goals across those 14 away days.

With Midtjylland winning ‘to nil’ in 60% of their home matches and Brondby losing without finding the back of the net in 36% of their road trips, the stats suggest a 48% chance of a home win ‘to nil’. If we turn that percentage expectancy into odds, we should be looking at an 11/10 play.

Coral have made the Midtjylland win ‘to nil’ a 17/5 shot on Monday evening, representing a big value selection from the Danish Superliga.

FC Copenhagen v OB Odense | Monday 16.00

Former Wolves boss Ståle Solbakken has been unable to successfully defend FC Copenhagen’s Danish champions crown this season but FCK have remained a force at their Parken home.

The capital club have taken maximum points from 11/15 (73%) of fixtures in front of their home supporters including 10 of their most recent 12. But it’s Copenhagen’s penchant for fast starts that stands out on Monday afternoon.

The hosts have led at the interval in nine of those 15 games, going on to secure victory in the HT-FT market in 8/15 (53%) of their Superliga games at Parken.

OB are sitting comfortably in mid-table and although Ove Pedersen’s charges have come out on top in their past three away days, The Striped have struggled away at the Superliga’s leading lights, losing four of their six trips to top-four teams.

Odense have W6-D1-L8 on their travels this campaign and been behind at half-time in nine of those 15 matches. The Striped have gone on to lose eight of those games, giving their L-L rate on the road a worrying 53% strike rate.

With both clubs returning winning HT-FT bets at the 53% mark, we should be expecting the odds on a repeat being close to 9/10 but BetVictor have chalked up Copenhagen/Copenhagen as a 7/4 shot on Monday afternoon.

Best Bets

Lokomotiv Moscow v Kuban Krasnodar – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (4/5 SkyBet)

FC Midtjylland v Brondby – FC Midtylland win ‘to nil’ (17/5 Coral)

FC Copenhagen v OB Odense – FC Copenhagen/FC Copenhagen double result (7/5 BetVictor)


About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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