STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Friday night's Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bet according to the numbers.
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen | Friday 29th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport
Analysing the market perception of Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen indicates an implied probability of 41% being given to the hosts, 28% to the draw and 34% for Leverkusen. With the market making the hosts favourites, I agree it’s good to have them onside.
Dominic Tedesco’s hosts implied probability of 41% situates the Royal Blues within the home implied probability range of 36% and 50% – 43% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.32 (around 13/10).
Leverkusen’s implied probability of 34% situates Heiko Herrlich’s side within the away probability range of 25% and 36.7%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 43% of matches, also equating to odds of 2.32 (around 13/10).
Tedesco's home record
Tedesco was appointed in the summer and he will be pleased by the start his side have made, collecting nine points while facing three of last season’s top four in their opening six fixtures.
Winning two of their three Veltins-Arena outings, Schalke’s only home loss came against Bayern Munich.
The Schalke coach likes to make his home ground a fortress. Prior to becoming the Royal Blues boss he was appointed boss of Erzgebirge Aue in March; he managed to guide the club from rock-bottom in the second-tier to 14th thanks largely to their unbeaten home record.
Tedesco’s home form as a manager is W6-D2-L1, collecting 20 points from a possible 27 and a win rate of 66%. That’s impressive.
Leverkusen's poor road record
Leverkusen also have a new manager at the helm in Herrlich and made a mixed start to their campaign. Unbeaten at home, Bayer haven’t picked up a point on the road, conceding an average of 2.60 goals per- game.
Die Werkself have faced 16 shots on-target and conceded eight goals, making the visitors the second worst away defence in the Bundesliga.
With Tedesco’s home record and Leverkusen's leaky defence on the road, the 31/20 (Sportingbet) you can get on Schalke has to be taken.
Schalke v Bayer Leverkusen – Schalke to win (31/20 Sportingbet)