SPAIN meet Poland in Seville on Saturday night in Group E. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies.
Spain vs Poland | Saturday 19th June 2020, 20:00 | BBC
Despite enjoying 86% of the ball against Sweden, having 17 shots on goal and amassing an xG of 2.3, Spain failed to find the net in their opening fixture, which puts a bit more pressure on them when they face Poland in Sevilla at 8pm on Saturday night.
Poland know that they need to get something from the game if this isn’t to be another early exit for them. Defeat to Slovakia was unexpected and realistically they need four points from their encounters with Spain and Sweden if they are to progress from this group.
Ultimately I expect Spain to win but there is relatively little evidence to suggest that they will win with comfort.
Looking across their matches over the last year, there have been a couple of outliers – a 6-0 win against Germany and 4-0 victory over Ukraine – but overall La Roja have struggled to find the net against better opposition, managing just two goals in two games against Switzerland, one against Greece, two against Georgia and failing to score in recent matches with Portugal and Sweden.
In recent years, Poland matches in major competitions have been fairly dire. Since the start of Euro 2016, they have played nine games and there have been just 16 goals, with none of those matches seeing over three goals scored. All of this leads me to my first bet…Spain to win and under 3.5 goals.
This is even-money with Betway and given that I expect La Roja to dominate possession but not score as many goals as perhaps xG suggests, I think having three goals on side makes this bet of real value. I expect Poland to try to keep this tight but eventually their opponents will break them down.
Elsewhere I did consider backing the 1-0 and 2-0 scoreline and also had a look at Alvaro Morata to score anytime but 6/4 is just a little too skinny for me to get involved so I will keep it to one bet this week. Hopefully a victorious one.
Spain vs Poland – Spain to win and Under 3.5 Goals (1/1 Betway)