SOUTHAMPTON meet West Ham on Tuesday night at The Etihad. Brett Curtis (@Brett_Curtis92) is on-hand to deliver his favourite fancies.
Southampton vs West Ham | Tuesday 29th September 2020, 18:00 | Amazon Prime
Southampton take on West Ham on Tuesday, with the visitors able to leapfrog their opponents in the Premier League table with a two-goal victory.
Both sides are without a win in their last three games, having missed the presence of top goalscorers Danny Ings and Michail Antonio in attack. However, Antonio was involved in David Moyes' side's post-match exercises after the 2-2 draw with Brighton, so could be involved here.
Andy Madley officiates the clash at St Mary's Stadium, and he's an official who has drawn my eye in recent weeks, but not for obvious reasons. Since Project Restart, the 37-year-old has shown fewer than three cards in 11 of his 12 games in the Premier League and the Championship, including in his last match at St Mary's between Saints and Sheffield United, when the visitors were fortunate to only receive one card.
Southampton and West Ham are two fairly clean sides, with West Ham not receiving a single card in their last three matches, and Southampton not receiving any in two of their last four. Indeed, four of West Ham's last seven games haven't even seen a card shown to either side.
Neither side have been shown a red card this season either, with Madley not showing one himself since New Year's Day, so Betfair's odds of 7/5 for there to be Under 30 Bookings Points in this game looks a good price (although if anyone spots anything more generous, please let me and the guys at WLB know, as not every bookmaker I checked had priced this market at the time of researching).
One man who does like a card is Oriol Romeu, who returns from suspension having picked up five bookings already this season. If Said Benrahma is handed a start in West Ham's number ten role, I expect Romeu and James Ward-Prowse to be busy at the base of Southampton's midfield.
Romeu has made 4+ tackles in nine of his 14 starts this season, with Ward-Prowse landing 3+ in nine of his 15 (including seven of his last 10), and both are odds-against with Sky Bet to hit these marks again.
The double should pay 7/2 once requested, which is a good price considering it would have landed in seven of their 14 starts together, but this bet would be dependent on Benrahma starting in my opinion, as he is the only West Ham player I trust to consistently draw tackles and fouls.