Southampton v Liverpool | Friday 5th April 2019, 20:00 | Sky Sports
That injury-time own goal from Toby Alderweireld last Sunday has kept the title race right on a knife-edge. Liverpool can return to the top of the table with a win on the south coast on Friday night; each game is becoming more important but the Reds continue to just about get the job done.
This presents a tricky test, however. Southampton are probably now safe of relegation and Ralph Hasenhuttl hasn’t received enough plaudits, for my money. He’s revolutionised a side that were languishing in the relegation zone and steered them clear of immediate danger.
Hasenhuttl’s high energy approach has given the Hampshire outfit a greater threat going forward. Nathan Redmond has been far more influential since he has switched to a more central role – he looks to get in between defenders and times his runs in behind very well, Liverpool have to keep a keen eye on the ex-Norwich man.
The 11/2 for a player such as Redmond operating up front to score looks a tempting price.
Jurgen Klopp has seen his team return W5-D4-L0 in their last nine Premier League fixtures so they’re clearly very hard to beat, and that in turn makes it hard to back against them here. However, with an important Champions League tie against Porto on the horizon it could be another case of ‘get the job done’ for the Merseyside club.
You’d have to support Liverpool to win by two or more goals to get a backable price and it’s not a market I’m willing to get involved with. Instead, I’ll take the hosts with a +1.25 start on the Asian handicap at 19/20 (BetVictor). This bet would see us take a full stakes profit should the Saints avoid defeat and will return a half stakes pay-out even if they lose by a goal.
Southampton have only lost by two or more goals once in their last 13 games in all competitions. On the flip side, Liverpool have failed to win by two or more goals in their last six on the road in the Premier League.
The 4/11 on Liverpool looks too short against a side that’s current performance rate doesn’t reflect their league position. Let’s remember that they’re up against a side who have only failed to score in two of their last 15 games and those were away against Chelsea and Arsenal. The Saints have scored in every game at St Mary’s since early November, and that also makes the 19/20 (Bet365) on Both Teams To Score a mighty fine price, in my book.