SOUTHAMPTON host Chelsea on Super Sunday. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets.
Southampton v Chelsea | Sunday 6th October 2019, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Live Super Sunday kicks-off with a game that should be an entertaining watch as Southampton host Chelsea at St Mary’s.
There looks to be continual improvement at Stamford Bridge with Frank Lampard getting accustomed to his debut top-flight managerial campaign. An impressive result in the Champions League at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy against strong hosts Lille followed a well-deserved 2-0 victory against Brighton in what was probably the Blues’ most complete performance to date.
Chelsea beat the Seagulls 14-5 on the shot count and Lampard’s charges managed to land 10 of those shots on-target; no surprise that they therefore dominated the Expected Goals (xG) battle too, winning 3.87-0.79. Nod-inducing stuff.
At Derby, Lampard struggled to get strong underlying numbers which was masked by their ability to win games with low percentage shots. The Rams rarely caused teams serious problems in the box and were highly reliant on the individual quality of loanees Mason Mount and Harry Wilson.
Lampard cannot be accused of luck this season though as his side have peppered opposition goals with notable regularity. Only Manchester City have accrued more shots in the box than the Londoners, and they also rank second for attacking xG output this season.
Considering those excellent stats, many will be looking at the near even-money quotes on the away side as a good thing but they’re up against a decent Southampton side, in my eyes. They currently sit in 14th which is a bit unfair when you inspect the Saints’ underlying performance data.
Based on xG table the south coast side should be sixth; they’re averaging just a goal a game but on xG they should have scored 1.80 per-game. Profligate finishing is the only thing costing Saints and gaffer Ralph Hasenhuttl decided to drop Che Adams and bring in Danny Ings in an attempt to try convert the chances.
Ings did bag against Spurs but that was mainly down to Hugo Lloris’ idiocy, but he creates his own chances with hassling and harrying backlines in this high pressing system.
Goals the way to go
I think Chelsea are fair favourites but I wouldn’t back them here at odds-on given they played midweek. Instead I’m happy to dip into the goals market and take the 1/1 on Over 2 Goals and Both Teams To Score with Bet365.
Southampton games are averaging 2.60 goals per-game but their matches have averaged an Expected Goals (xG) of 3.20. Chelsea games are seeing a mammoth 3.90 goals, it would be surprising if that the xG figure would match such a high volume but it’s not too far off at 3.50.
This bet has landed in the Saints’ last two fixtures against Spurs and Bournemouth. It’s also landed in four of Chelsea’s last five and that makes the even-money quote extremely appealing.
I’m willing to enter the players shots market and I think the imposing figure of Jannik Vestergaard is capable of causing all manner of problems from set-pieces. He bagged against Manchester United recently and he will easily be the tallest player on the pitch standing at 6’6”.
Vestergaard will be the main aim from corners and free kicks, we can rely on James Ward-Prowse to be on the money with his deliveries, he’s one of the best in the league when it comes to crosses. Chelsea have a small squad in terms of height and have looked susceptible from set-piece situations. All Chelsea players are at least three inches shorter than the centre half so he shouldn’t have too many problems winning his duels.
The great Dane is 6/5 with SkyBet to have a shot in the game and I think that’s value; he’s averaging one shot per=game and is landing 0.60 per-game on-target so I’m willing to take the plunge on the 7/2 that he has a shot on-target with the same firm. I also can’t ignore the 33/1 that he manages two or more on-target, small stakes on that of course.