THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE continues on Tuesday as Liverpool travel to Red Star Belgrade. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his betting thoughts.
Red Star Belgrade v Liverpool | Tuesday 6th November 2018, 17:55 | BT Sport
With the reverse fixture being as one-sided as the odds expected and Liverpool running out comfortable 4-0 winners, it’s difficult to make a case for anything other than a comfortable away victory in Belgrade on Tuesday night.
Red Star fans are known for their ability to create an intimidating atmosphere but there is little they can do to bridge the gulf in class between these two sides. To date, they have scored just one goal in this group – in a 6-1 hammering against PSG – and I fancy Liverpool to win ‘to nil' here, which is available at 37/40 with BetVictor.
Red Star did manage a scoreless draw in their previous home game against Napoli, but they lost the shot count 20-6 and only had 27% possession. Moreover, despite the fact they are fairly free-scoring domestically, they have really struggled to find the net in European competition.
For example, in the Europa League last season, they managed to make the Last 16 despite scoring just three goals (and conceding two) in their six group games. That group featured Arsenal, FC Koln and Bate Borisov and it’s worth noting that they failed to score in either encounter with the North London side. When they did reach the knockout stages, they lost 1-0 on aggregate to CSKA Moscow.
As noted in my column covering Arsenal vs Liverpool on Saturday night, Liverpool are not quite the entertainers they were last term. Their games average just 2.36 goals per-game compared with 3.21 last season.
I would argue that they are less devastating going forward – although I expect Mo Salah’s numbers to improve in the coming weeks – but far more solid at the back. They have conceded just five goals in 11 Premier League games this season and given that they’ve already faced Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, that is some achievement.
Having lost in Naples, Liverpool will know that a win here is a must and I don’t expect any mistakes to be made. I will have a small play on the 2-0/3-0 scorelines myself but tip-wise I will stick with the Merseysiders to win to nil at 37/40.
Red Star Belgrade v Liverpool – Liverpool to win ‘to nil' (37/40 BetVictor)