THE Champions League semi-finals reach their conclusion this week. On Tuesday Real Madrid welcome Bayern Munich to the Bernabeu. Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) shares his best bets.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich| Tuesday 1st May 2018, 19:45 | BT Sport
Courtesy of a second-half Marco Asensio goal, Real Madrid were able to go away from Munich 2-1 victors. Zinedine Zidane’s men went 1-0 down within the first-half hour but valiantly came back to secure the advantage coming into Tuesday’s second-leg.
Dani Carvajal is out through injury, while Isco and Raphael Varane are doubts. Nacho only returned to training this week, so is not at full pelt. It may be a weakened Madrid backline this Tuesday.
From a Bayern Munich perspective the absence of Arjen Robben is a blow given his ability to produce moments against the run of play. Centre-back Jerome Boateng will too be a miss. Niklas Sule will deputise.
Both backlines vulnerable
Here we can see that neither side will be at full-strength defensively, and that adds further claims to a game that already screams goals. Over 2.5 is best priced at just 2/5.
Real Madrid have scored in 12 consecutive matches, failing to score in just of their last 22. They’ve conceded in four of five European home games this season, with the exception coming against APOEL. They proved their inability to shut-up-shop against Juventus when they went 3-0 down, and it’s difficult to see them making the same mistake this time around.
Circumstance could mean Zidane opts for an attacking trio of Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Marco Asensio. Over 90 minutes there is no doubt Madrid will fashion out some chances.
The onus is on Bayern to force the issue. Jupp Heynckes’ side registered 17 shots last Wednesday. Had Frank Ribery taken one of multiple chances, or Robert Lewandowski been able to turn home, things may have panned out differently. They certainly carved Madrid more open than the immediate 2-1 score line might suggest.
Both Zidane and Heynckes rang the changes at the weekend in anticipation of this game. Over 1.5 goals is 23/20.
There’s a small chance that amidst the madness, Lucas Vazquez gets the nod at right-back. He ended last Wednesday’s game there.
Vazquez ranks well for both tackles and fouls, and given Frank Ribery is Bayern’s most fouled player in the Bundesliga this season, the 15/4 about the Spaniard in the anytime card market could look big should he start.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich- Over 1.5 First-Half Goals (23/20 Coral)