THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE Last 16 continues on Tuesday as Ajax travel to Real Madrid. Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his betting thoughts.
Real Madrid v Ajax | Tuesday 5th March 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
Having backed Real Madrid to win in Amsterdam in the first leg, I must admit to feeling a little fortunate that they came through that encounter with a 2-1 lead going in to this game. Ajax were the better side in that match but ultimately Los Blancos were more ruthless and I expect much of the same on Tuesday night.
Since that defeat to Real, Ajax have won three domestic matches by an aggregate score of 13-1 while Madrid have lost three of their four matches, including two defeats to arch-rivals Barcelona.
However, I don’t read too much in to results in the Eredivisie and don’t believe Madrid’s performances were as bad as their results suggest. For example, across the two games against Barca, they had 31 shots to their opponents 13 and were unfortunate in the Copa Del Rey in particular.
Madrid are missing Sergio Ramos but I don’t think that will be crucial here and given that they were barely evens in the first leg, I am surprised that they are as big as 9/13 to win this game, even if they do not need to win the tie to get through.
While I do not expect Madrid to run away with this one, I do expect them to do enough to get through, with 2-0 and 2-1 the kind of scorelines I would like to keep onside. All that leads me to a fairly conservative play, backing Madrid to win and Over 1.5 Goals, which is available at 4/5 with Ladbrokes.
Real Madrid v Ajax – Real Madrid to win and Over 1.5 Goals (4/5 Ladbrokes)