THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE knockout stages continue on Tuesday night. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from Tottenham's trip to RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig v Tottenham | Tuesday 10th March 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Spurs have an uphill battle ahead of them as they travel to east Germany with a 1-0 first leg deficit after an incredibly passive first leg in which they were lucky to lose just by the single goal. But Tottenham still have a sniff with there just been a single goal in the tie so far.
You’d be a brave man to fancy Jose Mourinho's men to get through here though with their torrid road record and recent results in general. Their draw at Burnley was a lucky one and that stopped the rot of four consecutive defeats. It’s not like they’ve deserved anything from them either.
Spurs have only won the Expected Goals (xG) battle three times in the league under Mourinho and actually have a negative xG supremacy under the ‘Special One’.
Fair enough Tottenham have been without Heung Min-Son and Harry Kane for a while but it’s defensively where the North Londoners look circumspect. They conceded 3.76 xG against Burnley, who were wasteful in front of goal – they will be punished should they play like that against this Leipzig outfit and I’m not surprised the hosts are around the 4/7 mark to win, even though they don’t have to.
Game dynamics always make second legs an intriguing case from a punting perspective, particularly so in-play with teams needing to attack at certain times. However, some markets pre-match also hold appeal if you can read the game state and in this case I think the 11/10 (Betfair) offering on the Second-Half being the Highest Scoring Half has to be a tempting bet.
The way this game is set up should benefit Die Roten Bullen as they can use the pace of Timo Werner, Christopher N’Kunku and Marcel Sabitzer on the break once the game opens up. Spurs may be happy to go into the break 0-0 and I’m sure Jose will be happy if that’s the case but ultimately they will need to attack at some point.
With the sheer volume of shots Spurs are conceding, even with a defensive set up, it would be remiss of me not to look into the shots market for Leipzig. The player that has impressed me most in recent months for the Germans in Christopher N’Kunku, he’s revelled in a free role behind the two strikers in a 5-2-1-2 formation adopted by head coach Julian Nagelsmann.
So much so the former PSG man is keeping recent big name signing Dani Olmo out of the starting XI and rightly so. N’Kunku racked up four assists in the recent rout at Schalke and he’s been a real fulcrum for his side going forward.
The Frenchman is 17/10 (Betfair) to attempt three or more shots in the game and that looks a good thing. This bet has landed in four of his last eight games and given the volume of shots Spurs are conceding at the minute I’m surprised this isn’t shorter.
To give some context, only Aston Villa are conceding more shots away from home in the Premier League this season than Spurs (16.5). To be fair the same bet is odds-on elsewhere so they certainly seems to be some value with the quote from Betfair.