DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back in his regular Saturday 3pm slot to deliver his best bet verdicts from the Premier League.
Burnley v Everton | Saturday 5th October 2019, 15:00
There may only be four 3pm games on Saturday but they all look fairly appetising. That starts at Turf Moor, where Burnley take on Everton.
The Clarets will be reasonably satisfied with a return of nine points from seven games, especially given that their only two defeats came away to Arsenal and at home to Liverpool. Everton will be less satisfied with their one point per-game return to date and their return of just one goal and one point from three away matches to Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Bournemouth.
My first instinct here was to get with Burnley. Sean Dyche’s men have an excellent home record against sides outside the Big Six. Since their most recent promotion, Burnley have W23-D8-L10 of their 41 matches against these sides. Moreover, they have won two of their three matches at home to Everton within this timeframe.
My only concern is that I believe that Everton’s performances have been better than their results. They will feel – and data will back them up – that they deserved more against both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa for example and their return of just one goal from 36 shots in the three away games already mentioned is not a just return.
Ultimately, I feel that Everton’s results will improve. While they are clearly still missing a goalscorer, I do believe that they will finish in the top 10. However, I cannot ignore the prices, which suggest that The Toffees are too short. Burnley have to be the value here and while I won’t take the 2/1 on a home win, I will take the 57/50 Marathon are offering on the home side in the Draw No Bet market.
I will probably also back the 1-1/2-1 home win scorelines myself.
Norwich v Aston Villa | Saturday 5th October 2019, 15:00
While the Liverpool and Watford matches both appealed, my other bet comes from Carrow Road, where I am amazed that the hosts are as big as 6/4 with Marathon. The price suggests that Aston Villa would be favourites on a neutral ground and I just don’t see that.
While Norwich’s away results are a concern it is worth noting that they have already played Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea so far this term. They have won two of their three home games to date and their sole home defeat came when they scored twice in defeat to Chelsea.
Villa meanwhile have just one victory to date. That came against Everton when their opponents missed several presentable chances. They’ve also failed to beat the likes of West Ham and Burnley at home and lost to Arsenal despite leading with a quarter of an hour to go and their opponents being down to 10 men.
I don’t doubt that in Jack Grealish and John McGinn, Villa have a lot of talent in the middle of the park. However, that really hasn’t translated in to performances and they have had a concerning start to the season.
Goals are clearly expected here. It is no surprise that Norwich have found defending tough given that they managed to concede 57 goals in the Championship last term. I do, however, believe that they have the firepower to win despite letting their opponents score.
Since the start of last season, the Canaries have conceded in 17 of their 29 league victories and I expect them to do the same in Norfolk on Saturday afternoon. Norwich to win and Both Teams To Score is 3/1 with Bet365 and that gets my vote as well.