PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Tuesday night's coupon.
It’s a measure of the minimal impact results have on future match prices that Brighton, six points clear of Crystal Palace – and with an excellent Premier League home record – go in to this game as marginal underdogs.
At first glance, I wanted to make a case for the home side winning this one but the Eagles recent performance data – especially given the opposition – is too good to ignore.
On Saturday, Palace had 29 shots to Burnley’s four and won the shots on-target count 9-0. Additionally, in the last month they’ve faced Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United and were the better side in each game aside from the trip to Stamford Bridge.
Still, backing Palace to gain all three points when 2/1 isn’t available is a bridge too far for me. Tottenham are the only side to go to The Amex and earn all three points this term.
The Seagulls have been Manchester United, West Ham and Wolves at The Amex this season and why there was more than an element of fortune in the latter two victories, I think Chris Hughton is master of the small margins in such matches.
Whenever I think of Brighton, I think of hard-fought tight encounters and the data backs this up. If you look at their matches against sides outside the top-six, only two of their 10 encounters this season have been settled by more than a single goal.
Brighton's tendency to draw matches at home also stands out. Since they were promoted to the Premier League, ten of their 25 games have finished in a stalemate and if you exclude matches against side in the top-six, nine of 17 (53%) have ended in a draw.
Under Roy Hodgson, six of Crystal Palace’s 17 away games have finished with honours even, so they too are no stranger to tight matches.
In an encounter that is likely to turn in to a battle, a draw is certainly going to keep you interested and is the way to go here in my view. At 21/10 with Bet365 I will be having a few pennies myself.
It was an impressive victory for West Ham at Newcastle on Saturday and while the scoreline may have flattered them a little, I fully expect them to build on that victory against Cardiff on Tuesday night.
To date this season, the Bluebirds have just one point and two goals from their six away matches; While they have had a tough schedule – including matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea – the fact that they have failed to manage more than a single shot on-target in half of those games give you an indication of their attacking output.
While I expect West Ham to win, I would rather not take the Hammers at 7/10 and will instead back a home victory and Under 4.5 Goals to be scored. That is available at 20/21 with BetVictor.
Cardiff may have conceded 27 goals in 14 league matches, but 16 of those came against Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal. Just one of West Ham’s 14 Premier League games has seen more than four goals scored and I take comfort that Cardiff recently held both Tottenham and Everton to single-goal losses.
Ultimately, I expect the London side to have too much for the Welsh opponents but this bet gives us plenty of possible victory scorelines and BetVictor’s price is simply too big in my opinion.