THE Premier League continues on Saturday and our man Daniel McCulloch (danmcc84) shares his best bets from the 3pm fixtures.
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace | Saturday 7th April 2018, 15:00
Looking purely at Crystal Palace’s away results this season may lead you to believe that Bournemouth are the value bet at Dean Court tomorrow afternoon. However, I really do not believe that to be the case. Palace have won three, drawn four and lost nine on their travels this term but that record misinforms their likelihood to beat their opponents this weekend.
Six of those nine losses came against ‘The Big Six’ and the other three came against Burnley, Everton and Newcastle, all of which they were unfortunate to lose. They out-shot their opponents 49-22 in those three matches and it is also worth noting that they have only lost one of their last seven eight matches to sides outside of the top six.
Expected Goals statistics suggest The Eagles should be seventh in the league rather than 17th so while there is obviously no guarantee that they will be more clinical with the chances they create at 3pm tomorrow, I have to believe they are the value here.
Therefore, I recommend taking advantage of Marathon Bet’s 61/50 on them in the Draw No Bet market.
Palace face a Bournemouth side who are almost the polar opposite of them. Eddie Howe’s outfit currently sit tenth whilst performance data suggests they should be in the relegation zone. They needed two strikes from 25 yards to beat West Brom three weeks ago and also recovered from two goals down to draw with Watford last week.
Stats suggests they were also fortunate to get a point from previous games with Leicester and Newcastle, so whilst I cannot question their resolve, they do struggle defensively and simply put Palace have better players and a greater need.
I couldn’t put anyone off them at around 2/1 in the outright market, but I prefer to be more cautious myself and simply back them Draw No Bet.
Brighton v Huddersfield | Saturday 7th April 2018, 15:00
I find that taking an inferior price to the one available previously is one of the hardest things to do in gambling. Brighton were a best price of Evens a couple of days back but now you can’t even get 10/11. However, I still believe they are the value here.
Chris Hughton’s men lost just their fourth home league game of the season last weekend when they were overcome by Leicester. They were very unfortunate to lose that game, with Glenn Murray’s penalty miss proving very costly. The other three sides to win at The Amex are Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea so it’s clearly been somewhat of a fortress for The Seagulls.
After this game their remaining fixtures read: Palace away, Tottenham at home, Burnley away, Manchester United at home, Man City away and Liverpool away. They will be likely underdogs in all those matches so failure to win here will make the current 16/1 on the Seagulls to be relegated look like excellent value.
I do, however, believe they will win tomorrow afternoon and feel that it will be fairly comfortable. Prior to their defeat against The Foxes they won three in the row at home, beating Arsenal 2-1, West Ham 3-1 and Swansea 4-1. They entertain a Huddersfield side who have failed to score in any of their last four matches and have found the net in just three of their last 15 away league games.
The Terriers failed to muster a shot on-target away to Newcastle last weekend and manage just two – both when they game was long gone – at home to Palace previously.
I like David Wagner and I hope the Yorkshire side manage to stay up but I can’t see them returning from the South Coast with any more points to their name.
I recommend backing the Seagulls at 9/10 with Marathon and also -1 at 5/2 with Paddy Power. I would suggest putting 75% of your stake on Brighton in the outright market and the remaining 25% on the handicap.
I wouldn’t usually place two bets on the same side but I think the rest of the Saturday’s fixtures are fairly priced. How anyone can make a case for West Brom winning anywhere or Swansea winning on their travels is beyond me and whilst at first glance Tottenham to win at Stoke looks a little skinny at 1/3, performance data and results suggest it’s accurate.
Bournemouth v Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace draw no bet (61/50 Marathon)
Brighton v Huddersfield – Brighton to win (9/10 Marathon)
Brighton v Huddersfield – Brighton -1 handicap (5/2 Paddy Power)