Brighton v Huddersfield | Saturday 2nd March 2019, 15:00
It feels like Brighton have sleepwalked their way in to a relegation dogfight having lost their ability to win tight games of football. The Seagulls performances over the course of the season have warranted a bottom six position but I do think they will do enough to survive.
Backing a side without a league victory since 29th December may sound a little foolish but that's exactly what I am doing this weekend as I am siding with Chris Hughton's side at 17/20 with Bet365.
Ironically, Brighton's recent performances have actually been a lot more impressive than they were when they were winning matches back in the autumn. For example, in their last two home matches combined – against Burnley and Watford – they deserved far more than the solitary point.
Against Burnley they won the shots and shots on target battle but were sucker punched in a 3-1 defeat while they had 21 shots to Watford's five in a 0-0 draw. They also missed big chances in defeat to Leicester on Tuesday night and I think they can come out on top against a Huddersfield side who despite a positive result and performance against Wolves in midweek, remain one of the worst sides we've seen in the Premier League era.
Since the start of 2018 the Terriers have lost 14 of 22 away matches and have managed just 12 goals across those games.
As stated already Brighton have caused opposition defences problems recently without scoring the goals their has deserved and I don't believe Huddersfield will cause them sufficient problems at the back to worry the Sussex side too much. Brighton therefore seem the value to gain a much-needed victory.
I was also tempted to back a 1-0 home victory given that four of Brighton's seven wins this term have come by this scoreline but I don't think the price is quite big enough.
Manchester United v Southampton | Saturday 2nd March 2019, 15:00
Manchester United and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer celebrated another impressive victory at Crystal Palace in midweek, making it nine victories and two draws from the Norweigans 11 Premier League games in charge.
Seven of those 11 matches have seen a United victory and four goals or fewer be scored so that is exactly the angle I am going with this weekend. United to win and under 4.5 goals is 17/20 with Ladbrokes and this net has been a winner in 14 of United's 24 home matches against sides outside the Big Six since the start of last season.
Additionally, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial may well not be risked which leaves United quite short on speed and creativity going forward.
Ultimately I believe United will emerge victorious but I don't think it will be easy against a Southampton side who has only conceded six goals in six away games since Ralph Hassenhutl became boss. Given they have faced Chelsea (who failed to score against the Saints) and Arsenal in that time that is no mean feat and I expect a relatively cagey affair at Old Trafford.
With Danny Ings injured it looks to me like Southampton are adopting quite a cautious approach. Even against a side as porous as Fulham, The Saints side looked quite conservative to me. They came out on top in that encounter but I don't expect them to do so on Saturday afternoon.
1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 seem the three most likely scorelines to me and given that we have a few other results on our side then I think this is a good angle of attack.