Premier League: Oppose the narrative in Norfolk


DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back in his regular Saturday 3pm slot to deliver his best bet verdicts from the Premier League.

Everton v Watford | Saturday 17th August 2019, 15:00

One thing I try to avoid is opposing a team after they’ve had a really poor result, especially if I believe that the scoreline doesn’t tell the full story. However, that’s exactly what I am doing at Goodison Park on Saturday afternoon, as I have found a way to back Everton against a Watford side who lost 3-0 at home to a Brighton side heavily favoured for relegation.

At 8/11 generally, I find it difficult to back Everton in the outright market, but I do like the look of The Toffees and Under 4.5 Goals at 23/20 with Coral.

Marco Silva’s men have enjoyed a decent 2019 in general, with home victories against Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United the highlights. Indeed, since they conceded six goals at home to Tottenham in December last year they have only allowed six goals in the nine subsequent matches at Goodison.

Watford endured a difficult end to last season but I understand that their priority was the FA Cup. They are a side that I generally struggle to work out but I will make an exception in this instance as I think Everton are quite an easy team to comprehend.

Goodison has been somewhat of a fortress over the last few seasons and this bet actually landed in 10 of their 19 home games last season. I feel like a 1-0 or 2-0 home win is the most likely scoreline so I wouldn’t put the more aggressive of you off correct score bets, but I am happy with an odds against quote for a match I expect to be a low-scoring home victory.

Norwich v Newcastle | Saturday 17th August 2019, 15:00

The hyperbole around Norwich’s defeat to Liverpool last week was nothing short of ridiculous. Yes, The Canaries were a little naïve at the back but I think any side in the league would accept the volume of chances that the Norfolk side created on Merseyside.

Daniel Farke’s side certainly showed a lot more attacking intent than Newcastle did at home to Arsenal but I don’t think I have seen enough of either side yet to be confident in backing the home side at 5/4.

Instead, I will take the 23/20 on offer with BetVictor on backing the ‘No’ option in the Both Teams To Score market. Norwich’s record last season – 13 of their 23 home games saw both sides find the net – makes it clear why you are getting such a price but I don’t think it takes in to account quite how toothless Newcastle are.

Steve Bruce’s side barely threatened a pretty weak looking Arsenal backline last Sunday and given that they’ve lost 55% of the goals from last season (with Ayoze Perez and Salomon Rondon both leaving) I really struggle to see how this will be anything but a long, tough season for them. They only managed 18 goals across their 19 away games last season and these matches averaged just 2.16 goals overall.

I understand the market view that Norwich will be an entertaining view this season but I don’t believe that will be the case for their opponents so I am happy to take any odds against quotes opposing goals.

Best Bets

Everton v Watford – Everton to win and Under 4.5 Goals (23/20 Coral)

Norwich v Newcastle – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (20/23 BetVictor)

About Author

I have loved numbers and sport throughout my life, so betting was a natural step. I started writing my own betting column at university and have continued throughout my adult life. I bet on football, golf and the NFL mainly but two flies going up a wall could also capture my attention. I am a West Brom fan and also follow teams in other sports but I think it's fair to say that no side compare with The Baggies!

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