Premier League: Expect a tight affair at the Cottage


PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday's 3pm night's action, picking out his best bets.

Fulham vs Cardiff | Sunday 27th April 2019, 15:00

Perhaps surprisingly I am opposing goals at Craven Cottage this weekend. Based on long-term stats for the home side it's hard to make much of a case for this but I feel like a combination of the importance of the match for Cardiff and the visitors away record makes under 2.5 goals – available at 6/5 with Betfair – appealing.

10 out of 17 of The Bluebirds away matches have seen two goals or fewer while recently they've had a real penchant for low scoring matches, with just one of their last seven seeing more than two goals scored.

Neil Warnock's side ‘did a job' on Brighton in their last away fixture and I expect a similar style of performance here. Brighton created relatively little in that encounter but The Bluebirds were hardly gung-ho themselves, relying on a 25-yard effort and a goal from a set piece.

It's too early to tell what type of side Fulham are under Scott Parker but they have managed two clean sheets in their last two matches, suggesting that they have found some kind of defensive solidity. Additionally, while four of his seven matches have seen three goals or more, I do think they've had a really tough set of fixtures. In that seven game span, they've faced Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Leicester, Bournemouth, Everton and Watford. That's six of the current top 10 and no one below 14th in the table. All those sides possess far more attacking capability than Cardiff, so I am fairly confident in this angle.

I expect Warnock to try to keep it tight initially before trying to win the game in the second half. Two of their three away victories this season have come thanks to a stoppage time winner and I wouldn't rule out another late goal deciding this one. With that in mind I did also consider Draw HT-Cardiff FT but I will be slightly more aggressive and back a 1-0 victory for the away side, that's available at 11/1 with Bet365.

Watford vs Wolves | Saturday 27th April 2019, 15:00

Just three weeks on from their epic semi-final, Watford and Wolves do battle again in a game which may be far less significant but perhaps will be just as entertaining.

Wolves will be looking for a small measure of revenge at Vicarage Road and if they did suffer from a hangover from that defeat, it was short-lived.

Since that crushing defeat, they lost 3-1 to Southampton before battering Brighton in all but name and convincingly overcoming Arsenal on Wednesday night.

My angle here, however, is to back Both Teams To Score, which is available at 10/11 with Bet365. For starters, the odds imply that there is a 52% chance of such a bet succeeding but the two clubs records have combined for a 56% success rate (39 of 70 matches) this season.

Additionally, Watford have scored in 13 of their 17 home matches this term. Two of the four that they failed to score in came after they suffered a first half sending off, while another came against Liverpool.

Moreover, Wolves have scored in nine of their last 12 away matches and clearly have the firepower to trouble a Watford backline that seems to be in a constant state of flux as they look to settle on their FA Cup final defence.

Best Bets

Fulham vs Cardiff – Under 2.5 Goals (6/5 Betfair)

Fulham 0-1 Cardiff (11/1 Bet365)

Both Teams To Score – Watford vs Wolves (10/11 Bet365)

About Author

I have loved numbers and sport throughout my life, so betting was a natural step. I started writing my own betting column at university and have continued throughout my adult life. I bet on football, golf and the NFL mainly but two flies going up a wall could also capture my attention. I am a West Brom fan and also follow teams in other sports but I think it's fair to say that no side compare with The Baggies!

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