DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) made an outstanding start to the season last Saturday with his 3pm best bets from the Premier League. He's back to attack the weekend fixtures.
Tottenham v Fulham | Saturday 18th August 2018, 15:00
There appears to have been a great deal of negativity around Tottenham this summer: The move to their new stadium has been delayed and they will once again be playing at Wembley this weekend.
Additionally, they did not sign a player over the summer and given the number of England and Belgium players they have in their pretty small squad, there are huge concerns about player fatigue.
Spurs entertain a promoted Fulham side who played some swashbuckling football on their way to promotion last term and have spent £100m since their Premier League status was confirmed.
Tottenham did win at Newcastle last weekend but their hosts caused them plenty of problems, hitting the woodwork twice as they pressed for an equaliser in the second half.
Fulham lost 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace but I don’t think that scoreline tells the full story. The Cottagers dominated the first half before a fine Jeffrey Schlupp strike and Palace were indebted to goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey making three excellent saves during that period.
Fulham created chances in the second period and were also denied a stonewall penalty when Andre Schurrle was felled in the area. Palace added a second late on but I saw enough in Fulham’s display to suggest that they will trouble Tottenham.
I really haven’t seen enough from Spurs at any point over the last season or so to justify a price of 1/4 to win this game. If you look at their results at home to sides from seventh downwards last season, they won 10 of these 14, suggesting a price of 2/5 would be more accurate and I would support this.
Ultimately, Tottenham probably will win but I feel that the 10/9 that BetVictor are offering on Fulham +1.5 is too good to miss. This basically means that you win if Fulham win, draw or lose by a single goal and given that this was successful in eight of Tottenham’s 14 home fixtures last term against the aforementioned sides, I am happy to take it.
I think Fulham will score and don’t see the hosts getting three so I expect a payout here.
Everton v Southampton | Saturday 18th August 2018, 15:00
Ladbrokes price of evens on Both Teams To Score takes my fancy here. Since Marco Silva arrived in England, 24 of his 43 league games (56%) saw both teams find the net.
Additionally, both Everton and Southampton saw more than 50% of their matches last season end with goals for each side and of Mark Hughes’ 30 games (across Stoke and Southampton) as a Premier League manager last term, 17 (57%) saw both sides find the net.
In Richarlison, Theo Walcott, Gyfil Sigurdsson and Cenk Tosun, Everton have plenty of attacking threat but I do worry about them defensively. Sam Allardyce was relieved of his services as his style of football was deemed to be too negative and Silva is clearly a more offensive manager.
I expect an Everton win and both teams to score to be a profitable angle this term and wouldn’t put anyone off this being the outcome this weekend. That is available at 7/2 with Bet365 but I don’t want to worry about the winner and will back Everton and Southampton to get on the scoresheet.
I had hoped to back Marco Arnautovic in the first goalscorer market when West Ham take on Bournemouth this weekend, as the Austrian was a very profitable angle for this column last year. Sadly, the bookies have cottoned on to the fact that he is playing much further forward and a best price of 5/1 is simply too skinny.
Instead, I will once again head to Wembley. If Tottenham are too short then Fulham must be too big and I am happy to back the West London outfit at 12/1 with BetVictor.
I am aware that Mauricio Pochettino’s men have an incredible record against newly promoted sides, but I haven’t seen too many sides as talented as Fulham emerging from The Championship in the last few years.
As stated earlier, I really don’t like the noises coming out of at Spurs at the minute and feel this price offers excellent value. It has to be worth a couple of quid!