DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) is back in his regular Saturday 3pm slot to deliver his best bet verdicts from the Premier League.
Brighton v Burnley | Saturday 14th September 2019, 15:00
My first inclination this weekend was to back Manchester United at odds-against. Having seen that the Old Trafford side were 8/11 last week, the odds-against prices looked quite appealing but their injury list is simply too long for me to get involved.
Instead, there are a couple of both teams to score bets that I like, starting on the south coast. Brighton entertain Burnley in a game that I expect to be exactly that. Under Chris Hughton, Brighton gained a – probably fair – reputation for being quite a dull side but it is worth noting that 20 of their 38 games last season saw both sides find the net.
Under Graham Potter The Seagulls look a far more attractive team and while this bet has only obliged once in their four league games to date this term the stats suggest that it really should have been three, with the only deserved loss coming in away game against Manchester City.
Burnley have a reputation as data defiers due to their over performance compared with the Expected Goals (xG) metrics but whenever I watch them they pass the eye test in terms of chance creation. They may not be pretty to watch but they do look menacing up front and in Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood they have two good strikers who are very effective at finishing the opportunities that their teammates provide.
Since the start of last season, 23 of Burnley’s 42 matches have seen both sides find the net and with this in mind, plus the open style I expect from Brighton, I will take the 10/11 with Betfred on Both Teams To Score.
Sheffield United v Southampton | Saturday 14th September 2019, 15:00
It is the same bet for me at Bramall Lane and I am even more confident of this one.
I was trying to fathom why 10/11 is also available with Betfred onB oth Teams To Score but I factored in that just 20 of Sheffield United’s 46 league games last season saw such a bet oblige. However, it has occurred in three of their four games this season and against a better quality of opposition I expect their defence to be a lot more porous this term.
Since Ralph Hassnehutl took over at St Mary’s, the Hampshire side have been the team to go to in this market. Twenty of their 28 games have seen both sides find the net and while a 71% strike rate is probably unsustainable over a far bigger sample size, I can see why it wins so often.
Simply put, The Saints are far better going forward than they are at the back and I really cannot see why this price isn’t closer to 8/11. I will also back the 11/2 with Bet365 on 1-1 in the correct score market but I will keep my outright tips to the core market.