Burnley v Bournemouth | Saturday 22nd September 2018, 15:00
My initial plans were to back Cardiff +2.5 goals this weekend on the Asian Handicap line, but having seen Manchester City lose to Lyon, I think Pep may get a strong performance from his team in the Welsh capital.
Instead, I’ll go further north as two sides I tipped for relegation battle it out at Turf Moor. It’s accurate to say that it’s been a mixed bag for the pair.
Burnley have struggled all season, earning just one point from five games and finding themselves bottom of the table. Bournemouth, in contrast, have 10 points and have impressed in every fixture, including their 2-0 defeat at Chelsea.
The Cherries are clearly the side in form, but I simply cannot have them as favourites to win this encounter. Burnley’s performance data has been pretty poor for the last two to three seasons and that is no different this term.
However, it is worth noting that their actual results have been fairly impressive, particularly at home. Against sides outside of the top six, the Clarets record since returning to the top-flight two seasons ago reads W16-D6-L5. By contrast, away from home against the same opposition, Bournemouth have W7-D10-L10.
I don’t doubt that Bournemouth are the better side and fully expect them to finish higher in the table. However, there is simply too much recency bias in the prices for my liking and Marathon's 27/25 on Burnley in the Draw No Bet market is too big to ignore.
Across the 27-game sample I refer to, Burnley’s most common result has been a 1-0 victory, something they’ve achieved on eight occasions. At 9/1 with Bet365 this is surely a value bet.
I fully expect a vociferous home crowd to ensure that Burnley have added to their solitary point by 5pm on Saturday.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle | Saturday 22nd September 2018, 15:00
Crystal Palace entertain Newcastle at Selhurst Park on Saturday afternoon and I am shocked but delighted to see the Eagles available at odds-against.
William Hill’s 21/20 is simply too big in my opinion and it really understates Palace’s record under Roy Hodgson. Since the former England manager joined the South London club, they’ve earned 50 points from 39 games overall and have an incredible record against sides outside the top six.
Under Roy, they have W12-D10-L5 against sides from seventh down. Their home record against said sides reads W6-D4-L2. Both those losses came against Southampton when they were without their talisman Wilfried Zaha.
The Ivorian is fit for Saturday’s encounter and I believe his threat will prove too much for a Newcastle side that seem to be in a permanent state of flux.
Newcastle’s record of one point from five league games is a little misleading, given that they have faced Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal in four of those encounters. They’ve not disgraced themselves in any of these matches, losing each 2-1.
However, failing to win any of their opening five matches and finding yourself second bottom of the table is hardly going to do wonders for your confidence.
I really struggle to see where the goals are coming from in this Toon side and think the gulf between the two sides is greater than the prices suggest.
I make Palace a shade of odds-on, so think this is a good value bet.
Burnley v Bournemouth – Burnley draw no bet (27/25 Marathon)
Burnley v Bournemouth – Burnley to win 1-0 (9/1 Bet365)
Crystal Palace v Newcastle – Crystal Palace to win (21/20 William Hill)