Premier League – Analysis of the Big Six’s goals trends


PREMIER LEAGUE fanatic Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) looks at the goals trends and statistics surrounding the Big Six clubs following the opening 10 weeks of 2018/19 campaign. 

Premier League | Big Six Goals Analysis

The football season only feels like it started a few weeks ago and yet as I write this we face the fact November is upon us and we've already seen more than 25% of the Premier League season completed.

All 20 Premier League teams have played 10 games each and now feels like the right time to look at a range of goals-based statistics for the Big Six: Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester City.

I respect that fans of those teams not included may well ask, ‘what about us?’ but this approach is something that has helped produce solid, consistent results in the past, and with this season's title race looking more competitive than ever, it adds another dimension to it all.

In this piece I'll be looking at the respective statistics for Both Teams To Score, Over 2.5 Goals, Win + Both Teams To Score, as well as Win ‘To Nil’ for those six clubs, aiming to identify any key trends to look out for. From that I'll look at their respective fixtures this weekend and note any bets I believe are worthwhile based on the statistics.

I really hope this piece helps to inform and guide successful betting decisions.

Both Teams To Score

  • 8/10 (80%) Manchester United (40% Win + BTTS)
  • 7/10 (70%) Arsenal (50% Win + BTTS)
  • 5/10 (50%) Chelsea (30% Win + BTTS)
  • 5/10 (50%) Tottenham (30% Win + BTTS)
  • 4/10 (40%) Liverpool (30% Win + BTTS)
  • 3/10 (30%) Manchester City (20% Win + BTTS)

Manchester United may well look like a million miles away from winning the league, or any major trophy for that matter, but they sit at the top of the Both Teams To Score table. 80% of United’s league matches have featured both sides scoring and that's why it's only a general 4/7 it happens again when they taken on Bournemouth on Saturday.

Four of Manchester United's matches have seen them win with Both Teams To Score and so the 5/2 available on the Red Devils to beat Bournemouth alongside BTTS will tempt people in, especially so given the Cherries form and confidence. It should be an open game.

The highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend is Arsenal v Liverpool and this is a fixture that usually just screams goals, and plenty of them. Bookmakers have BTTS priced up around 1/2 (William Hill) and it's hard to argue with that – Arsenal have had 70% of their Premier League matches finish with both sides scoring.

Win + Both Teams To Score bets will be very popular at the Emirates; if you believe Arsenal can succeed alongside both teams scoring you can get around 4/1 – they've already done it five times this season. Meanwhile, Liverpool are around 21/10 to win with BTTS.

Tottenham have seen 50% of their Premier League matches produce Both Teams To Score winners and it's 4/6 that it happens again when they travel to Wolves. But Spurs have not had a BTTS Premier League match since 22nd September, when beating Brighton 2-1.

I'm personally not sure what to expect from Wolves as they've had a dip in form and stopped scoring, so while I think BTTS will be popular in this Molineux match, it's not for me at 4/6.

Chelsea have also seen 50% of their Premier League matches feature Both Teams To Score and the bookmakers offer a general 10/11 on it occurring against Crystal Palace on Sunday, but that requires Palace to notch and I don't see how they do that unless it's a penalty or a moment of brilliance from Wilfried Zaha.

Manchester City sit at the bottom of the Big Six BTTS league with only three of their 10 matches seeing both sides score, that's why the bookmakers go odds-against on City against Southampton producing goals at both ends.

I personally can't see a Southampton side struggling for goals and attacking flair scoring at the Etihad and therefore the Both Teams To Score No at 8/11 (BetVictor) has way more appeal.

Over 2.5 Goals

  • 8/10 (80%) Manchester United
  • 7/10 (70%) Arsenal
  • 7/10 (70%) Chelsea
  • 6/10 (60%) Tottenham
  • 5/10 (50%) Liverpool
  • 5/10 (50%) Manchester City

Just as with the Both Teams To Score stats, Manchester United lead the way in the Over 2.5 Goals market with eight of their matches crossing the whitewash. Indeed, United’s games have so produced an average of 3.40 goals per-game and so the 31/40 (BetVictor) on offer for Bournemouth v Manchester United to go Over 2.5 Goals is definitely worth strong consideration.

Arsenal have had 70% of their league matches feature Over 2.5 Goals and even though it's only 8/15 on a repeat against Liverpool on Saturday, that's a bet that will be massively popular given the profile of the game. The Reds have delivered Over 2.5 Goals in half of their league matches this term.

Tottenham have seen seven (70%) fixtures produce Over 2.5 Goals and you can get around 10/11 on Wolves v Tottenham following suit. But I'm not sure as Wolves’ matches haven't produced goals galore recently – in fact, the Molineux men are struggling to score at the minute.

In Chelsea's case, six (60%) matches have delivered Over 2.5 Goals and it's only 1/2 for a repeat against Crystal Palace, and I think that is way too short. I'd much rather be on Under 2.5 Goals at 8/5 (BetVictor) as I don't see enough goal threat from the visitors to Stamford Bridge.

Manchester City posted incredible Over 2.5 Goals statistics last year – it was a bet that just kept giving to punters – and that's why this season you just can't get good odds on it occurring in any City match now. Indeed, it's only 1/3 for City v Southampton to go Over 2.5 Goals and that's clearly crazily short.

In all honesty, it would probably need Man City to get all three goals to collect on Saturday.

Win ‘To Nil’

  • 6/10 (60%) Manchester City
  • 5/10 (50%) Liverpool
  • 4/10 (40%) Tottenham
  • 4/10 (40%) Chelsea
  • 2/10 (20%) Arsenal
  • 1/10 (10%) Manchester United

Manchester City have the lowest Both Teams To Score and Win + Both Teams To Score statistics so it's obviously no surprise to see them head the Win ‘To Nil’ market with an impressive 60% strike rate this season. For me, that makes the 8/11 on offer for City beating Southampton ‘to nil’ very tempting indeed.

Liverpool have had won ‘to nil’ in half of their matches so that's a potential way to get betting value on the Reds, but for this weekend I can't recommend that as they travel to face Arsenal, in what tend to be goalfests.

Tottenham could go to Wolves and succeed without conceding – I don't believe there will be too many goals in that one so the 11/4 on Spurs to win ‘to nil’ might look huge afterwards. But I think that's a game to leave alone as it’s just too hard to call with confidence.

Meanwhile, Manchester United just haven't been able to clean sheet this season – they only have once won without conceding and that's not good enough. I don't see how you can confidently back a United clean sheet alongside a victory, given their record.

Best Bets

Bournemouth v Manchester United – Over 2.5 Goals (31/40 BetVictor)

Chelsea v Crystal Palace – Under 2.5 Goals (8/5 BetVictor)

Arsenal v Liverpool – Both Teams To Score (1/2 William Hill)

Manchester City v Southampton – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (8/11 BetVictor)

Back the Yankee and accumulator

About Author

I've been into football since first going to Man United as an 8 year old, lucky enough to have season ticket in the mid 90's. I've been into horse racing since first going to Doncaster as a kid and I love a day out at the races. Sports betting and writing has been a passion of mine for the last 20 years, just love sharing thoughts with people and there is no bigger buzz than knowing my work has helped somebody make a few quid. I'm also into Darts and Snooker, love watching and playing both but I watch much better than I play, although I did once get my hands on the World Snooker Championship trophy at the Crucible. My most recent sporting highs have come from watching T20 cricket with my son, we just love watching Derbyshire beat Yorkshire every time. My 23 years of working life to date have been spent in the newspaper/news media business and the betting industry including working at football grounds/racecourses.

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