Porto vs Chelsea | Wednesday 7th April 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Porto take on Chelsea in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final tie on Wednesday. Both legs will take place at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan stadium in Seville, Spain, due to COVID-19 travel restrictions.
It’s tough to see many goals here to be honest, with Chelsea’s 5-2 collapse at home to West Brom on Saturday after Thiago Silva’s first-half dismissal surely an aberration which won’t be repeated any time soon.
Indeed, the Blues had conceded only two goals in Thomas Tuchel’s previous 14 matches in charge in all competitions, with all 14 of those matches seeing fewer than four goals scored at either end.
15 of Porto’s last 18 matches in all competitions have also gone under the four goals mark, with Sergio Conceicao’s side boasting an excellent defensive record in this season’s Champions League.
The Dragons have kept five clean sheets in their eight matches in the competition, with Chelsea keeping six clean sheets in their eight games.
Unfortunately, under four goals is best priced at 1/4, so we’ll have to take a different approach to get some value (I’m not keen on chancing under three goals as 2-1 either way wouldn’t exactly be the biggest shock in the world).
Chelsea are yet to score more than two goals in a game under Tuchel, with the defeat to West Brom the first time they had conceded more than once under the German. As such, I’m happy to back both teams to score fewer than three goals each as a starting point for a Bet365 Bet Builder.
Slovenian referee Slavko Vincic takes charge on Wednesday, which caught my eye as the 41-year-old showed seven cards in the first leg of RB Leipzig against Liverpool in February.
That wasn’t a particularly dirty match from my point of view, either, with both sides committing 11 fouls across the 90 minutes. Leipzig received a card 46% of the time they fouled the Reds!
Vincic comfortably averages more than four cards per game across his European career, while he has shown both teams a card in 15 of his last 20 UEFA matches, so I’m happy to back both teams to receive a card each and 3+ cards overall.
Lastly, with Chelsea likely to dominate possession and play with plenty of width, I’ll also back the Blues to earn 3+ corners. Excluding the FA Cup, they have hit this mark in all bar one of Tuchel’s matches (away to Liverpool).
One of their players tasked with providing the width could be Marcos Alonso, although Ben Chilwell will also be vying to receive the nod in the left wing-back role.
Should Alonso start, 6/4 (Betfair) for him to have a shot on target is a great price. The Spaniard is one of Chelsea’s main attacking weapons, illustrated by him having seven shots on target across his last four league starts.
He tested Jan Oblak in their first leg win against Atletico Madrid, too, with the 9/1 on offer for Alonso to have 2+ also appealing given this has landed in three of his last four league starts.
Should Alonso not start, Kai Havertz provides a nice alternative at 4/5 and 4/1 for 1+ and 2+ respectively as he could be in a centre-forward role. He had four shots on target at Leeds prior to the international break.