Poland v Senegal – Market suggests goals are overrated in Moscow


GROUP H continues on Tuesday afternoon as Poland take on Senegal in Moscow. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) highlights the best betting opportunities.

Poland v Senegal | Tuesday 19th June 2018, 16:00 | ITV

The dark days of winless campaigns, while left lingering in the group stage wondering what could of been, may be a distance memory if Adam Nawalka can translate Poland’s rejuvenated form onto the world stage.

After a qualifying campaign that consisted of eight wins, 28 goals and only one defeat, the White Eagles seemingly strolled to Russia with talisman Robert Lewandowski netting 16 times.

Meanwhile, Senegal are back on the world stage. After a sensational campaign in 2002 when the Lions of Teranga shocked the world with their historic win over defending champions France, captain Aliou Cisse is back in charge and it would come as no surprise to witness the Senegalese shock the world again.

The market

The markets perception of Poland can be observed by the implied probability currently attached with Nawalka’s side. An implied win probability of 41.66% is evident throughout Poland’s historic market data, with encounters against Chile, Romania and the Netherlands all possessing similarities within the Match Odds prices.

So how have Poland performed under the current market conditions on previous occasions?

By analysing Poland’s historic market data, we can observe how the White Eagles have behaved under similar market conditions. As a result we can highlight any inefficiencies that may exist and how they may be beneficial.

The current odds posses many similarities with the perception that was attached with Poland in their game against Romania – with an implied probability of 41.66% the prices from the Match Odds are identical. In addition, the Asian Handicap line also followed suit, with an implied probability in the region of 52.63% attached with the +0.25 side of the market.

Delving deeper

Although at this stage there doesn't appear to be any alarming discrepancies, by delving deeper into the archives we can determine whether the market is as efficient as it seems.

In a similar manner to the data extracted from Poland’s market history, utilising the perception that has been attached with Senegal in their previous encounters can be a useful guide that could help determine how the market will react in the lead up until kick-off.

The average implied probability extracted from the three market examples, when the perception of Senegal has been similar to what is evident here, indicates a percentage of 30.58. Almost identical to the three game working average, is the current implied probability attached with Senegal (29.85%).

In correlation the prices set on the Asian Handicap line of -0.25/+0.25 identifies that the weight of the money is present on the +0.25 side of the market, with 53.19% of the market share having the Draw and Senegal on side. The average implied probability from Senegal’s three market examples insinuates a price in the region of 1.80 for the +0.25 handicap line.

Furthermore, by utilising the six market examples from both Poland and Senegal’s historic data, seemingly the implied probability correlates with the current price of 1.88 available.

Over/Under value

However, the market that appears to possess the most potential is the Over/Under market, with an implied probability of 52.35% currently attached to the Under 2.25 Goals (10/11 188BET).

The average price extracted from all six market examples indicates an implied probability of 54.34%, which appears to provide an angle on what the closing price might be.

Therefore, by having Under 2.25 Goals onside, the data suggests we will land on the correct side of the market.

Backing Under 2.25 Goals will see a full profit pay-out should fewer than two goals be scored but should exactly two goals be netted, we'll still pick up a half-stakes win.

Best Bets

Poland v Senegal – Under 2.25 Goals (10/11 188BET)

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