OddSmart: Value, according to the numbers
As time is passing by, bookmakers are becoming increasingly scrupulous with the way they price sporting events, especially the five major European football leagues. The result of this is normal punters are getting stitched up time-after-time finding themselves betting on events at prices that are far too short without ever knowing. We want to help.
In short what we do is crunch the numbers on a vast number of metrics to come out with an Expected Goals (xG) figure for each side. This xG rating is unique to every team in every individual game they play and is constantly changing, so where hypothetically Crystal Palace may have an xG rating of 1.20 at home to Chelsea this weekend, if they were to play the same fixture again three weeks later the ratings would change based on the upturns and downturns in what we have identified as the critical measurables.
The xG figure allocated to a team is purely how many goals we expect the side to score as the xG figure itself has already factored in multiple facets of the oppositions defensive numbers. After everything is said and done, we have an xG figure for the home team and an xG figure for the away team. We can then run these through pricing models to give us what we believe is the true price on a number of markets from Match Odds to Correct Scores and everything in between.
We would then find the selections we believe to be value, check the team news to see if any injuries may have caused the discrepancy in price, and finally consult with a number of trusted experts before committing to a selection.
In conclusion, the simplest way to explain what we do is with the classic coin toss example. The chance on a coin toss if 50% which is implied odds of evens. However, if you got offered a chance to bet on heads at 5/4 (implied chance 44%) that would be massive value because the true price is even-money. We use the same principle but with football markets and over the course of a season beating the numbers you will finish ahead.
Southampton v Manchester United | Saturday 31st August 2019, 12:30 | BT Sport
Two of the trickiest teams to work out so far this season meet at St Mary’s on Saturday lunchtime, and although it’s very difficult at the moment to pinpoint where these sides may finish, we all know they love goals.
Southampton looked very poor in their opener but have since bounced back with a very unexpected result at Brighton, albeit aided by a red card. Manchester United are the polar opposite, starting with a tremendous 4-0 demolition of Chelsea, but have already started faltering and defensively look clueless at the best of times.
There is no question plenty of chances will be served up in this game and that’s why we’re backing the Over 2.5 Goals line at what we think is a whopping price of 10/11 (Marathon) – it’s a bet we make 3/4.
Looking at the play patterns, we also expect a penalty in this one so it might be worth an outside punt on a penalty being awarded, although the 11/5 on offer suggests we’re not the only ones who can see the referee pointing to the spot.
Luton v Huddersfield | Saturday 31st August 2019, 15:00
With our numbers getting closer and closer to where they need to be as more games are played, this one really flags up as a big opportunity.
Both sides have shown they’re not shy in front of goal in their games, however, they have also shown a distinct lack of organisation at the back, which we believe means only one thing, goals.
Luton will see this as a great (and realistic) opportunity to land a scalp in the league and on the flipside, Huddersfield will be desperate to get out of the rut they’re stuck in, and will be eyeing this as an opportunity of their own.
We do believe Huddersfield would be happy with a point and may set up accordingly but nobody here believes they can keep a clean sheet against this Luton side, and as soon as they concede they’ll need to react.
With Luton carrying an xG rating of 2.23 into this game compared to Huddersfield’s still impressive 1.55, we’re expecting in excess of three goals and we’re also expecting Both Teams To Score. But we’re playing a bit safer and just taking the Over 2.5 Goals line at 20/21 (Marathon), a bet we believe should be sub 4/6.