FOOTBALL modellers OddsSmart (@OddSmart_) share their views on Sunday's Premier League showdown between Wolves and Burnley, picking out the biggest value bets according to their advanced algorithms.
OddSmart: Value, according to the numbers
As time is passing by, bookmakers are becoming increasingly scrupulous with the way they price sporting events, especially the five major European football leagues. The result of this is normal punters are getting stitched up time-after-time finding themselves betting on events at prices that are far too short without ever knowing. We want to help.
In short what we do is crunch the numbers on a vast number of metrics to come out with an Expected Goals (xG) figure for each side. This xG rating is unique to every team in every individual game they play and is constantly changing, so where hypothetically Crystal Palace may have an xG rating of 1.20 at home to Chelsea this weekend, if they were to play the same fixture again three weeks later the ratings would change based on the upturns and downturns in what we have identified as the critical measurables.
The xG figure allocated to a team is purely how many goals we expect the side to score as the xG figure itself has already factored in multiple facets of the oppositions defensive numbers. After everything is said and done, we have an xG figure for the home team and an xG figure for the away team. We can then run these through pricing models to give us what we believe is the true price on a number of markets from Match Odds to Correct Scores and everything in between.
We would then find the selections we believe to be value, check the team news to see if any injuries may have caused the discrepancy in price, and finally consult with a number of trusted experts before committing to a selection.
In conclusion, the simplest way to explain what we do is with the classic coin toss example. The chance on a coin toss if 50% which is implied odds of evens. However, if you got offered a chance to bet on heads at 5/4 (implied chance 44%) that would be massive value because the true price is even-money. We use the same principle but with football markets and over the course of a season beating the numbers you will finish ahead.
Wolves v Burnley | Sunday 25th August 2019, 16:30
Not a traditionally hair-raising fixture but this is where we think we have found some of the best value this weekend. Whilst mathematics is used to price football matches, often goals markets are also priced on clubs’ reputations, thus attracting punters in.
A perfect example is in a game from this week’s midweek Championship round. Leeds hosted Brentford and the two are traditionally free-scoring teams so Over 2.5 Goals was priced comfortably odds-on when we had Under 2.5 Goals as comfortably odds-on. In this case, the game finished 1-0 to Leeds due to a late goal and we won at a great price.
Now it doesn’t always happen like this but over the course of a campaign, those bets will have you in profit and that’s exactly what we’re doing here, beating what we like to call reputational pricing.
All you have to do is mention the word Burnley and it conjures up images of direct, physical football and 0-0/1-0 scorelines. But their matches actually feature more goals than you may believe. Away from home last season, 58% of the Clarets’ games went Over 2.5 and we think this contest offers great value in that market.
We can back Over 2.5 Goals at 11/8 (BetVictor) when we believe the true price is closer to 5/6. We’ve already been involved with goals in both Burnley games this season, backing over in their opener at home to Southampton (3-0) and last weekend in the defeat to Arsenal (2-1) landing the bet both times.
Having played on Monday, then again in Europe on Thursday night, Wolves will be tired. And in a game we already see Burnley scoring in, this is an added bonus. The last team you want to play with fatigued players is a physical team like the Clarets, and when you couple this with the fact Burnley struggle to keep teams out away, plus Wolves’ goal threat, we have a game on our hands.
Wolves v Burnley – Over 2.5 Goals (11/8 BetVictor)