CHAMPIONSHIP specialist Vince Blissett (@Vince_RFC) shares his verdict from Friday's clash between Norwich and Brighton.
Norwich v Brighton | Friday 19:45 | Sky Sports
Brighton achieved their number one priority on Monday in winning promotion and now another three points at Norwich on Friday night will seal them the title. How fresh and focused on this game they’ll be after the celebrations just four days ago is anyone’s guess.
You’d expect Albion to be fully focused but there are better places to go than Carrow Road in this situation. The Seagulls have won their last five and seven of eight to seal their promotion deal.
They’ve not been spectacular the last month or so but have dug out the wins against bottom-half opposition and credit has to go to Chris Hughton and the team for digging in when others would of stumbled, see Newcastle.
Norwich are a betting nightmare; you never know if they’ll turn up…
Take the last five games for example, dreadful displays away to Aston Villa and Huddersfield then everything clicked and someone, I forget who, got smashed 7-1 at Carrow Road.
Then came another home game when 10-man Fulham saw the Canaries off with ease and on Monday there was an impressive win at Preston.
Man-for-man Norwich are every bit as good as Brighton but for whatever reason they just haven’t performed on a regular basis. One thing they will need to do better next season is picking up points against the better teams.
That 7-1 is the only time the Canaries have beaten a team above them in the league.
A promotion push next season is very possible but consistency is key.
Norwich games produce goals
One thing you know Norwich games will produce is goals. Those loyal fans that will have been to all 43 games have seen a massive 142 goals, more than any other fans in the league – that’s 3.3 goals per-game.
Thirty of those 43 games have seen Over 2.5 Goals and 19 Over 3.5 Goals. At home those numbers read 14 of 21 Over 2.5 Goals and 11 over Over 3.5 Goals.
Straight away, finding a way of backing goals looks the betting angle.
The betting angle
With odds of 2/1 to win again the Seagulls are sure to have their backers but they’re nowhere near as good value as Monaco were the other night when we all took advantage.
Taking into account the week they’ve had, and the unpredictability that brings with it, the win markets are to be avoided so I’m heading straight to goals.
Brighton games have gone Over 2.5 Goals in 22 of their 43 with Over 3.5 Goals in just the seven. Away from the Amex just the nine of 21 have gone Over 2.5 and just the four Over 3.5.
They aren’t the best of numbers when trying to make a case for goals but this is Norwich we’re talking about. They’ve nothing to play so surely they’ll go out and attack the champions elect, I hope.
The Over 2.5 Goals line is a bit on the skinny side, as is Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score so I’m going to a market that’s probably overlooked too often and that’s the Asian Goals line.
It works in exactly the same way as Asian Handicap betting. As I’m writing this the goal line on Bet365 is set at 2.75 but we can back Over 3 Goals at 23/20 – if there’s under three goals the bet loses, over three goals the bet wins and if there’s exactly three goals the bets is a push and stakes returned.
Norwich v Brighton – Over 3 Goals (23/20 Bet365)