North Macedonia vs Netherlands | Euro 2020 Betting Preview & Tips


NORTH MACEDONIA take on Netherlands in Group C from Euro 2020 on Monday.  James Potter (@thebettingdeskoversees the encounter.

North Macedonia vs Netherlands | Monday 21st June 2020, 17:00 | ITV

North Macedonia take on Netherlands at Amsterdam Arena in the Group C dead rubber.

Netherlands have already claim top spot with an impressive 2-0 win against Austria on Thursday after North Macedonia had earlier exited the competition with a 2-1 defeat to Ukraine, with another decent display but ultimately another defeat.

I have written articles on all of the Risovis games, and I mentioned that many pundits had underestimated them, and they wouldn’t be as poor as many thought and I am pleased to say that has been the case as they have scored in both games so far whilst giving a good account of themselves.

They have attacked well with a total xG of 2.97 which is higher than France, Belgium and England and with 20 shots they sit level with France and ahead of Portugal, England and Belgium. However, its at the other end which they have been poor. No side has conceded as many goals in the opening two group games, their xGA of 4.36 is the 4th highest in the tournament and only Turkey have conceded more shots on target.

As the Netherlands have won the group, it is a luxury situation for Frank de Boer, who has confirmed that he will only make a very small number of changes to his side despite them having nothing to play for in the final game. De Boer has no injury issues going into the clash but Marten de Roon is in risk of missing the last 16 games if he picks up a yellow card. De Boer could decide to start with Ryan Gravenberch in midfield, while there have been calls for Donyell Malen to partner Memphis Depay up front.

North Macedonia have nothing to play for but pride with their defeats against Austria and Ukraine already confirming that they will exit the tournament, regardless of whether they defeat Netherlands, but they shouldn’t be underestimated again here. They will see this as a huge game and probably their biggest of the tournament.

They may be without star-man Goran Pandev for the clash with the Netherlands after the 37-year-old picked up a knock. The striker missed training on Saturday, and it will be touch and go whether he starts up front in Amsterdam. Igor Angelovski will give his key player every opportunity to prove his fitness. I am expecting them to make very few changes to their starting line-up as their strength in deep isn’t that great. 

The Netherlands will be playing at home against a side that could well be tired after two huge games for them of which both have been played in Hungary and they now need to travel to Amsterdam. They know that their Euro 2020 journey is at an end, and I believe the home side will have too much quality for them. Austria hadn’t scored for 300+ plus minutes before scoring three and then against the Oranje they generated just 0.45 xG whereas Ukraine had 17 shots, eight on target with 11 in the box generating a xG of 3.19 scoring twice.

In my opinion the Netherlands have a better attack than both Austria and Ukraine. The Risovi have conceded five goals to the weaker two sides in the group and now have to play the group winners. However, this is still a huge game for them, and I don’t see them giving up and allowing the home side to roll them over, so I am going for goals again.

The Netherlands to win and over 2.5 match goals looks a good angle. I can easily see the home side scoring at least three goals, but this also covers us if North Macedonia find the net, which isn’t out of the question. The fact that Oranje have won the group and have nothing to play for, we may see them take a slightly relaxed approach and allow the away side a few chances.

The Risovi have now seen an average of 2.95 goals across their last 20 meaningful games, whilst they have scored in 18 of them, they have also conceded in 16 – keeping clean sheets against Lativa, Israel, Georgia and Lichtenstein. The Dutch have seen an average of 3.15 goals across their last 20 meaningful games. They have scored in 17 and 1.5+ in 13, including in the last seven.

I am not sure how this game doesn’t have goals and whilst over 2.5 goals is far too low to back, I want to get on 3.0 Goal Line at 9/10 with Betfair. This means that if there are three goals, we will get a full refund and we need four or more goals to obtain profit.

The last bet I want to take it the home side to clear the -1.5AH and best odds for this can be found at 9/11 with SBK. As I have mentioned I believe the home side will have too much quality for the visitors.

We know there won’t be wholesale changes by the Dutch and they have won their last two games by an aggregate of xG 4.82 vs 0.83, winning the shot count 29 vs 14. Even with a few changes the Dutch still have quality with the likes of Cody Gakpo, Teun Koopmeiners, Steven Berghuis and Quincy Promes all hoping for their first minutes of the tournament. I can see the Dutch winning this game easily especially as the visitors will tire in the latter stages.

Best Bets

North Macedonia vs Netherlands – Netherland win and Over 2.5 Goals (3/4 Betway)

North Macedonia vs Netherlands – Over 3 Goal Line (9/10 Betfair)

North Macedonia vs Netherlands – Netherlands -1.5 Asian Handicap (9/11 SKB)

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I started betting on football more seriously whilst at university where I thought I knew everything about football. However, I quickly realised that the use of data gave you an edge. All my bets are based on statistical model output and research. When I haven't got my head in data I am life long Ipswich fan.

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